Tests
How our pick rules performed on 200,000+ archive matches, and how many hit live this week, with the reasons for misses. A transparent scorecard.
Live tracking (this week)
Every candidate is frozen before kick-off and checked against the final score. A rule's score blends its archive back-test with its live record, so rules that miss live drop automatically. Picks waiting for results: 13.
Daily picks (shared on our channel)
04.10
✓ West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W): Away win (2)
03.10
… Albacete Balompié U19 – Rayo Vallecano U19: Home under 1.5✓ Belarus – San Marino: Over 2.5✓ Olympic Charleroi – RFC Meux: Away under 1.5
02.10
✓ Ranheim – Egersund: Over 2.5✓ Juventude-RS – Operário-PR: Away under 1.5
01.10
✓ Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City: Over 2.5
30.09
✓ Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21: Home win (1)✓ Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FC: Home under 1.5✓ New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SC: Over 2.5
28.09
✗ Romania – Bosnia & Herzegovina: Double chance 1X✗ Belgium – France: Over 1.5… Botswana – Tunisia: Home under 1.5
27.09
✗ KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 Jaroslaw: Home under 1.5✓ Teruel – Huesca: Home under 1.5✓ RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20: Home over 1.5
26.09
… Skedsmo – Ulfstind: Home over 1.5✓ Brabrand – Nykøbing FC: Home under 1.5✓ Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FF: Home under 1.5
25.09
✓ Niger – Lesotho: Away under 1.5✗ Georgia – Northern Ireland: Double chance 1X✓ Morocco – Gabon: Home win (1)
24.09
✓ Liechtenstein – Lithuania: Home under 1.5✓ Kosovo – Republic of Ireland: Under 3.5✓ Cameroon – Comoros: Home win (1)
23.09
… Manchester United (W) – Sheffield United (W): Home over 1.5✓ Turks & Caicos – Montserrat: Home under 1.5
22.09
✓ Peterborough United – Colchester United: Over 1.5✓ Clachnacuddin – Ross County: Home under 1.5✓ Independiente Medellín – Jaguares de Córdoba: Home win (1)
Rule scorecard
| Rule | Checked | Hit | Live rate | PriorArchive | Score now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 90% · ≥20 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 89% | 89% |
| Away under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 83% | 85% |
| Home over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 82% | 83% |
| Away win (2) · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 78% | 79% |
| Home win (1) · DNB home + Over 1.5 · 90% · ≥10 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 80% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 80% · ≥3 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 74% | 76% |
| Away over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥10 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| HT under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 75% | 73% |
| HT over 0.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 76% | 70% |
| Under 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 70% · ≥20 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 72% | 69% |
Latest results
| Kick-off | Match | Pick | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.10 22:00 | Guyana – DominicaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 21:00 | Morocco – MaliInternational Friendly Matches | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 17:00 | Kyrgyzstan – LebanonInternational Friendly Matches | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 3-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 04.10 16:00 | West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W)England · Super League (W) | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 04.10 01:30 | Inter de Limeira-SP – Brusque-SCBrazil · Brasileirao Serie C | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 2-1 |
| 04.10 00:00 | CD Águila – CD CacahuatiqueEl Salvador · Primera El Salvador | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Olympic Charleroi – RFC MeuxBelgium · Eerste Nationale | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Almere City – FC VolendamNetherlands · Eerste Divisie | Over 2.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 1-0 |
| 03.10 19:00 | Belarus – San MarinoUEFA Nations League | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 13:00 | Žalgiris Vilnius – FK PanevezysClub Friendly Matches | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 03.10 02:45 | Juventude-RS – Operário-PRBrazil · Brasileirao Serie B | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 21:45 | England U21 – Slovakia U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Miss | FT 0-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 02.10 20:00 | Ranheim – EgersundNorway · OBOS-ligaen | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 04:30 | Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas CityUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:30 | New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SCUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:00 | Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FCUSA · USL Championship | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 30.09 21:30 | Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Hit | |
| 30.09 19:45 | Paris FC (W) – Arsenal (W)Champions League (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 15:00 | Comoros – NamibiaAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Under 2.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 14:00 | Santa Clara U23 – FC Felgueiras U23Portugal · Liga Revelacao U23 | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 04:06 | Club Necaxa (W) – Toluca (W)Mexico · Liga MX Femenil (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 28.09 21:00 | Defensor Sporting Reserves – Progreso ReservesUruguay · Reserve League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 28.09 02:00 | Columbus Crew – Inter Miami CFUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 23:30 | Portmore United – Humble LionsJamaica · Premier League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 4-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 21:00 | RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20Brazil · Paulista U20 | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Teruel – HuescaSpain · Primera RFEF 2 | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Lorca Deportiva CF – UD CastellonenseSpain · Segunda RFEF 3 | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 16:00 | KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 JaroslawPoland · III Liga | Home under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 05:30 | Vancouver Whitecaps – D.C. UnitedUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 02:00 | Antigua & Barbuda – AnguillaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 17:00 | Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FFSweden · Ettan Södra | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 15:00 | Brabrand – Nykøbing FCDenmark · 2nd Division | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 09:00 | China U23 – Thailand U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 21:45 | Arbroath – Queen's ParkScotland · Championship | HT under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 25.09 21:30 | England U21 – Kazakhstan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 18:30 | Bulgaria U21 – Portugal U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Away over 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 25.09 18:00 | Niger – LesothoAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 12:00 | Bangladesh – MalaysiaASEAN Cup | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 24.09 21:45 | Liechtenstein – LithuaniaUEFA Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 23.09 18:30 | HJK (W) – Brann (W)Europa Cup (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 08:30 | China U23 – United Arab Emirates U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 22.09 21:45 | Clachnacuddin – Ross CountyScotland · Challenge Cup | Home under 1.5 | Hit |
Archive back-test 2010–2019
Every archive match is treated as if it were today's: its prediction comes only from the OTHER archive matches with the same opening in that filter combination (leave-one-out). When the share reaches the threshold it counts as a prediction and is checked against the real score. Cell: hit rate and number of predictions. Green = at least 5 points above base, red = below base; framed = best combination for that bet (200+ predictions). 209,514 matches with both half-time and full-time scores.
| Bet type | DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away | DNB home + Over 2.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 | DNB home + Over 1.5 | DNB home + Under 3.5 | Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 + Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win (1)base 45% | 58.6%14,945 | 52.6%2,387 | 67.0%32,555 | 64.3%34,711 | 52.3%6,321 | 65.4%35,283 | 65.3%32,487 | 55.8%2,928 | 44.3%115 | 0.0%10 | 55.9%1,084 |
| Draw (X)base 25% | 36.0%439 | 7.8%90 | 14.5%69 | 37.4%390 | 27.6%250 | 19.2%203 | 21.9%105 | 0.0%25 | – | – | 35.6%45 |
| Away win (2)base 30% | 39.0%867 | 50.0%186 | 65.8%8,915 | 49.6%3,896 | 40.9%653 | 56.8%6,093 | 51.2%4,068 | 17.9%39 | 30.4%23 | 0.0%7 | 39.8%88 |
| Over 1.5base 74% | 72.5%59,092 | 73.1%11,146 | 73.3%193,611 | 73.3%141,786 | 72.5%28,384 | 73.6%169,738 | 72.9%160,328 | 73.5%198,964 | 75.0%535 | 79.4%63 | 73.3%4,601 |
| Under 1.5base 26% | 20.9%422 | 13.2%114 | 17.8%73 | 38.1%683 | 35.5%338 | 38.7%602 | 25.4%209 | 47.4%38 | – | – | 14.5%69 |
| Over 2.5base 50% | 50.7%11,556 | 48.0%2,671 | 55.7%16,817 | 56.6%26,824 | 51.1%6,026 | 57.5%26,858 | 55.5%22,376 | 62.5%19,620 | 49.0%145 | 38.5%26 | 43.8%1,181 |
| Under 2.5base 50% | 54.9%18,025 | 54.2%3,880 | 54.2%14,483 | 56.4%36,756 | 53.9%10,174 | 57.7%32,172 | 57.4%36,455 | 61.9%24,621 | 52.8%216 | 0.0%10 | 52.9%1,655 |
| Over 3.5base 28% | 23.7%359 | 30.5%95 | 33.3%216 | 40.9%1,252 | 29.6%287 | 42.1%744 | 43.7%787 | 45.5%400 | 66.7%12 | – | 43.9%66 |
| Under 3.5base 72% | 74.4%60,625 | 74.7%11,398 | 72.9%187,654 | 74.1%140,445 | 74.9%29,560 | 73.5%164,601 | 74.2%159,211 | 73.2%190,777 | 75.8%558 | 63.0%54 | 74.4%4,707 |
| BTTS: yesbase 51% | 51.0%14,319 | 52.2%3,705 | 52.7%12,341 | 53.3%27,833 | 52.5%8,684 | 53.9%25,970 | 54.1%24,758 | 53.7%4,533 | 48.8%240 | 23.5%34 | 56.4%1,650 |
| BTTS: nobase 49% | 50.2%12,673 | 48.0%2,611 | 52.4%8,905 | 52.1%23,566 | 48.9%6,800 | 54.0%19,647 | 53.0%20,037 | 53.3%2,997 | 46.6%131 | – | 49.1%1,219 |
| HT over 0.5base 68% | 67.6%51,463 | 67.1%9,569 | 68.2%185,363 | 68.3%126,352 | 67.3%24,598 | 68.6%155,507 | 68.0%143,794 | 68.5%193,776 | 69.9%512 | 68.3%63 | 66.7%3,938 |
| HT under 1.5base 68% | 69.9%55,476 | 69.3%10,243 | 68.6%179,746 | 69.3%129,505 | 70.1%26,899 | 69.0%153,046 | 69.4%148,026 | 68.9%184,295 | 68.2%465 | 70.6%51 | 69.8%4,175 |
| Home over 1.5base 43% | 55.1%9,954 | 46.2%1,809 | 63.8%21,226 | 60.7%25,421 | 52.3%4,309 | 63.3%24,193 | 62.4%21,867 | 55.4%4,616 | 39.8%83 | 0.0%5 | 46.0%778 |
| Home under 1.5base 57% | 60.0%25,838 | 58.2%5,365 | 67.3%83,859 | 63.4%62,849 | 59.8%14,476 | 64.8%73,057 | 64.9%72,168 | 62.8%70,641 | 62.7%244 | 0.0%17 | 57.3%2,209 |
| Away over 1.5base 32% | 34.8%856 | 28.6%217 | 63.3%6,636 | 48.5%3,156 | 27.5%618 | 55.1%5,400 | 48.8%3,179 | 23.3%116 | 47.1%17 | – | 40.4%166 |
| Away under 1.5base 68% | 72.9%57,516 | 71.1%10,388 | 71.9%160,105 | 73.1%130,745 | 72.1%26,871 | 72.2%147,373 | 72.6%144,443 | 68.4%192,698 | 75.5%518 | 64.8%54 | 71.6%4,229 |
| 2-3 goalsbase 46% | 45.4%8,580 | 48.9%2,248 | 43.9%3,298 | 46.8%12,802 | 46.1%5,194 | 44.1%7,994 | 46.1%8,507 | 41.9%602 | 45.9%209 | 33.3%21 | 47.4%1,103 |
| HT/FT 1/1base 27% | 42.9%1,477 | 24.1%116 | 57.7%1,899 | 50.6%3,364 | 40.7%528 | 54.4%2,483 | 51.3%2,873 | 31.7%104 | – | – | 30.2%53 |
| HT/FT 2/2base 17% | 42.9%56 | 0.0%5 | 52.4%765 | 33.1%175 | 32.8%64 | 45.1%599 | 37.2%226 | – | – | – | 0.0%5 |
| HT/FT X/Xbase 16% | 0.0%42 | 0.0%5 | 0.0%5 | 20.6%34 | 0.0%30 | 0.0%15 | 63.6%11 | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 2/1base 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/2base 2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/Xbase 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 2/Xbase 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| More goals in 2nd halfbase 45% | 42.5%6,716 | 42.8%1,790 | 45.8%3,434 | 46.0%11,016 | 43.3%3,971 | 45.9%7,200 | 45.6%7,845 | 49.8%1,326 | 47.4%57 | 42.3%26 | 44.8%849 |
| More goals in 1st halfbase 28% | 26.9%490 | 22.9%105 | 18.5%119 | 19.1%444 | 23.3%361 | 29.4%320 | 33.2%238 | 63.6%11 | – | – | 13.0%54 |
Archive percentages describe what happened in the past; they do not decide a match. harbigol does not offer betting and shows no odds or bookmakers. 18+.
Other analysis pages
Dropping Odds · Matches: how did archive games with the same opening end? · Picks · HT/FT turnarounds