Harbigol does not offer betting · takes no bets · links to no betting site · 18+
English ▾
TürkçeEnglishDeutschEspañolItalianoFrançaisPortuguêsРусскийالعربية
18+
The 4 outcomes the market trusts most

Match result · Over/Under 2.5 · BTTS

1Brighton and Hove Albion – FK Kauno ŽalgirisBrighton and Hove Albion15.10 22:00 · Conference LeagueBrighton and Hove Albion93%
2FC Twente Enschede – FC ThunOver 2.515.10 22:00 · Conference LeagueOver 2.571%
3TSG Hoffenheim – Besiktas JKBTTS: yes · calculated15.10 22:00 · Europa LeagueBTTS: yescalculated65%
4SK Brann – Lincoln Red Imps FCSK Brann15.10 22:00 · Conference LeagueSK Brann82%
The four outcomes the world market trusts most, across match result, over/under 2.5 and both teams to score. Refreshed every morning at 08:00 (Istanbul).

Dropping odds in the world market

Prices from the world betting market are stripped of each bookmaker’s margin and averaged into a single “market probability”. If an outcome’s probability has risen since our first measurement, the market has grown more confident in it. The Drop column shows by what percentage the market price has fallen since then. No bookmaker and no odds are shown. Last update: 15.10 07:30.

Dropping

TimeMatchProbabilityDrop
17.10
17:00Manchester CityIpswich TownIpswich Town · Premier League6% → 9%▼ 26.4%
19.10
00:00EstudiantesSan LorenzoSan Lorenzo · Argentine Primera18% → 24%▼ 22.9%
17.10
17:00Swansea CityWest Ham UnitedSwansea City · Championship27% → 35%▼ 22.9%
24.10
19:30ChelseaTottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur · Premier League20% → 25%▼ 19.1%
17.10
13:30Erzurum BBEyüpsporErzurum BB · Turkish Süper Lig46% → 57%▼ 18.9%
17.10
21:45AS RomaGenoaGenoa · Serie A11% → 13%▼ 18.1%
18.10
16:00BournemouthSunderlandSunderland · Premier League22% → 26%▼ 16.0%
18.10
16:00KocaelisporGoztepeGoztepe · Turkish Süper Lig34% → 40%▼ 15.3%
17.10
23:30Independiente RivadaviaCA Tigre BACA Tigre BA · Argentine Primera18% → 22%▼ 15.2%
25.10
18:15Celta VigoReal BetisReal Betis · La Liga32% → 37%▼ 14.9%
16.10
20:00Çorum FKÇaykur RizesporÇorum FK · Turkish Süper Lig39% → 46%▼ 14.7%
17.10
23:30PlatenseLanusPlatense · Argentine Primera29% → 33%▼ 12.6%
24.10
17:15Real Racing Club de SantanderEspanyolReal Racing Club de Santander · La Liga35% → 39%▼ 11.2%
17.10
14:30WatfordCharlton AthleticCharlton Athletic · Championship27% → 30%▼ 10.7%
18.10
16:00Leeds UnitedManchester UnitedLeeds United · Premier League35% → 39%▼ 10.2%
19.10
20:00TrabzonsporBesiktas JKTrabzonspor · Turkish Süper Lig29% → 32%▼ 10.0%
25.10
17:00LiverpoolBrighton and Hove AlbionBrighton and Hove Albion · Premier League26% → 29%▼ 9.8%
15.10
19:45SalzburgAC MilanSalzburg · Europa League24% → 26%▼ 9.7%
17.10
17:00BrentfordLiverpoolBrentford · Premier League35% → 39%▼ 9.7%
17.10
14:30MiddlesbroughCardiff CityCardiff City · Championship17% → 19%▼ 9.6%
18.10
15:00CA OsasunaReal Racing Club de SantanderReal Racing Club de Santander · La Liga24% → 26%▼ 9.5%
18.10
02:00Velez Sarsfield BAGimnasia MendozaVelez Sarsfield BA · Argentine Primera47% → 52%▼ 9.0%
17.10
19:30Newcastle UnitedAston VillaAston Villa · Premier League27% → 30%▼ 8.8%
24.10
14:30Aston VillaManchester CityManchester City · Premier League53% → 57%▼ 8.0%
17.10
17:00West Bromwich AlbionBlackburn RoversBlackburn Rovers · Championship22% → 24%▼ 7.9%
17.10
16:00Genclerbirligi SKGalatasarayGenclerbirligi SK · Turkish Süper Lig14% → 15%▼ 7.8%
19.10
22:00Tottenham HotspurCoventry CityTottenham Hotspur · Premier League59% → 64%▼ 7.8%
17.10
19:00FenerbahceAlanyasporFenerbahce · Turkish Süper Lig67% → 73%▼ 7.6%
19.10
19:30MonzaCagliariCagliari · Serie A28% → 30%▼ 7.4%
23.10
22:00Ipswich TownNottingham ForestNottingham Forest · Premier League36% → 39%▼ 7.3%
24.10
22:00Atlético MadridDeportivo La CoruñaAtlético Madrid · La Liga72% → 78%▼ 7.3%
18.10
18:30Borussia MonchengladbachTSG HoffenheimBorussia Monchengladbach · Bundesliga28% → 31%▼ 7.3%
18.10
02:00Atlético TucumanRosario CentralAtlético Tucuman · Argentine Primera27% → 29%▼ 7.2%
15.10
19:45KF EgnatiaFC MidtjyllandKF Egnatia · Conference League15% → 16%▼ 7.0%
17.10
16:00Amed SKTorku KonyasporAmed SK · Turkish Süper Lig46% → 49%▼ 6.0%
17.10
15:00EspanyolAtlético MadridAtlético Madrid · La Liga51% → 55%▼ 5.9%
25.10
19:30SunderlandLeeds UnitedSunderland · Premier League33% → 35%▼ 5.8%
16.10
21:45FrosinoneSassuoloSassuolo · Serie A34% → 36%▼ 5.5%
24.10
15:00Rayo VallecanoElche CFDraw · La Liga24% → 26%▼ 5.3%
18.10
17:15Celta VigoAlavésAlavés · La Liga25% → 26%▼ 5.2%

Tracked matches

Market probability 1 · X · 2
TimeMatch1X2
15.10
19:45Salzburg – AC MilanEuropa League26%25%48%
15.10
19:45AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Be'er ShevaEuropa League74%16%10%
15.10
19:45Lech Poznań – Bayer LeverkusenEuropa League20%22%58%
15.10
19:45Lyon – Crystal PalaceEuropa League43%26%31%
15.10
19:45Sparta Prague – LillestromEuropa League70%18%12%
15.10
19:45NK Celje – Omonoia FCEuropa League38%28%34%
15.10
19:45Union Saint-Gilloise – Real SociedadEuropa League39%26%35%
15.10
19:45Torreense – SunderlandEuropa League13%18%69%
15.10
19:45Gent – AGF AarhusConference League59%23%18%
15.10
19:45PFC CSKA Sofia – AS MonacoConference League15%21%64%
15.10
19:45Hajduk Split – AjaxConference League17%21%62%
15.10
19:45Riga FC – FC KairatConference League49%27%23%
15.10
19:45FC Lugano – Red Star BelgradeConference League35%26%39%
15.10
19:45KF Egnatia – FC MidtjyllandConference League16%23%61%
15.10
19:45Panathinaikos FC – FK Borac Banja LukaConference League78%14%7%
15.10
19:45Universitatea Craiova – GetafeConference League29%29%41%
15.10
19:45Mjällby AIF – Inter Club d'EscaldesConference League72%18%10%
15.10
19:45KuPS Kuopio – TrabzonsporConference League15%21%64%
15.10
22:00Dinamo Zagreb – AnderlechtEuropa League47%26%26%
15.10
22:00Benfica – CelticEuropa League76%15%9%
15.10
22:00TSG Hoffenheim – Besiktas JKEuropa League48%24%28%
15.10
22:00Bournemouth – SK Sturm GrazEuropa League79%13%7%
15.10
22:00Celta Vigo – JuventusEuropa League27%28%44%
15.10
22:00Jagiellonia Białystok – FC Ararat-ArmeniaEuropa League67%20%13%
15.10
22:00Ferencváros TC – Viktoria PlzeňEuropa League49%25%26%
15.10
22:00Marseille – Olympiakos PiraeusEuropa League41%27%32%
15.10
22:00NEC Nijmegen – PFC Levski SofiaEuropa League51%25%24%
15.10
22:00Rennes – OFI CreteEuropa League76%15%9%
15.10
22:00Atalanta BC – Pafos FCConference League70%19%12%
15.10
22:00Brighton and Hove Albion – FK Kauno ŽalgirisConference League93%5%2%
15.10
22:00FC Copenhagen – SC BragaConference League38%29%32%
15.10
22:00Sint Truiden – FC Iberia 1999Conference League73%17%10%
15.10
22:00Hearts – FC NordsjaellandConference League31%25%44%
15.10
22:00FC Twente Enschede – FC ThunConference League78%13%8%
15.10
22:00SC Freiburg – FK JablonecConference League74%17%9%
15.10
22:00SK Brann – Lincoln Red Imps FCConference League82%12%6%
16.10
02:00Atlético Huracán – Gimnasia La PlataArgentine Primera39%32%29%
16.10
03:30Estudiantes La Plata – Flamengo-RJCopa Libertadores26%31%43%
16.10
20:00Çorum FK – Çaykur RizesporTurkish Süper Lig46%26%28%
16.10
20:00SC Fortuna Köln – VfB Stuttgart II3. Liga - Germany43%26%32%

Market probabilities are measured twice a day (09:00 and 17:00, Istanbul); leagues with upcoming matches are picked automatically. Probabilities do not decide the result of a match.

What are dropping odds and how to read them?

What does dropping odds mean?

When an outcome's odds drop, the market has become more confident that it will happen. harbigol measures every match twice a day and lists outcomes whose market price has clearly dropped since the first measurement.

How is the market probability calculated?

We take prices from the world betting market, remove each bookmaker's margin and average the remaining probabilities. The result reflects the market consensus rather than one bookmaker. The site shows only these probabilities and by what percentage the market price has dropped; no odds and no bookmaker names.

What are the 4 outcomes the market trusts most?

Every morning at 08:00 (Istanbul) we publish the four outcomes the market trusts most across match result, over/under 2.5 and both teams to score, each with its market probability. Probabilities do not decide a match; the aim is to show transparently what the market thinks.

Where do the over 2.5 and BTTS probabilities come from?

Over/under 2.5 probabilities come from world market prices. The both-teams-to-score probability is calculated from the match-result and over 2.5 probabilities with a Poisson model and is labelled “calculated”.

Does harbigol offer betting?

No. harbigol does not offer betting, takes no bets, links to no betting site and never names bookmakers. Content is for information only and for adults (18+).

Guides