The 4 outcomes the market trusts most

Match result · Over/Under 2.5 · BTTS

1ŠK Slovan Bratislava – VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart14.10 22:00 · Champions LeagueVfB Stuttgart74%

2Bodø/Glimt – Borussia DortmundOver 2.514.10 22:00 · Champions LeagueOver 2.571%

3FC Cincinnati – New England RevolutionBTTS: yes · calculated15.10 02:30 · MLSBTTS: yescalculated69%

4Nashville SC – Sporting Kansas CityNashville SC15.10 03:30 · MLSNashville SC73%

The four outcomes the world market trusts most, across match result, over/under 2.5 and both teams to score. Refreshed every morning at 08:00 (Istanbul).

Dropping odds in the world market

Prices from the world betting market are stripped of each bookmaker’s margin and averaged into a single “market probability”. If an outcome’s probability has risen since our first measurement, the market has grown more confident in it. The Drop column shows by what percentage the market price has fallen since then. No bookmaker and no odds are shown. Last update: 14.10 07:30.

Dropping

TimeMatchProbabilityDrop

17.10
17:00Manchester CityIpswich TownIpswich Town · Premier League6% → 9%▼ 26.4%

19.10
00:00EstudiantesSan LorenzoSan Lorenzo · Argentine Primera18% → 24%▼ 22.9%

17.10
17:00Swansea CityWest Ham UnitedSwansea City · Championship27% → 35%▼ 22.9%

24.10
19:30ChelseaTottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur · Premier League20% → 25%▼ 19.1%

18.10
16:00BournemouthSunderlandSunderland · Premier League22% → 26%▼ 16.0%

17.10
13:30Erzurum BBEyüpsporErzurum BB · Turkish Süper Lig46% → 55%▼ 15.5%

17.10
23:30Independiente RivadaviaCA Tigre BACA Tigre BA · Argentine Primera18% → 22%▼ 15.2%

16.10
20:00Çorum FKÇaykur RizesporÇorum FK · Turkish Süper Lig39% → 46%▼ 14.4%

25.10
18:15Celta VigoReal BetisReal Betis · La Liga32% → 37%▼ 14.1%

17.10
23:30PlatenseLanusPlatense · Argentine Primera29% → 33%▼ 12.6%

24.10
17:15Real Racing Club de SantanderEspanyolReal Racing Club de Santander · La Liga35% → 40%▼ 12.4%

17.10
14:30WatfordCharlton AthleticCharlton Athletic · Championship27% → 30%▼ 10.7%

18.10
16:00Leeds UnitedManchester UnitedLeeds United · Premier League35% → 39%▼ 10.2%

25.10
17:00LiverpoolBrighton and Hove AlbionBrighton and Hove Albion · Premier League26% → 29%▼ 9.8%

17.10
17:00BrentfordLiverpoolBrentford · Premier League35% → 39%▼ 9.7%

17.10
14:30MiddlesbroughCardiff CityCardiff City · Championship17% → 19%▼ 9.6%

18.10
02:00Velez Sarsfield BAGimnasia MendozaVelez Sarsfield BA · Argentine Primera47% → 52%▼ 9.0%

17.10
19:30Newcastle UnitedAston VillaAston Villa · Premier League27% → 30%▼ 8.8%

24.10
14:30Aston VillaManchester CityManchester City · Premier League53% → 57%▼ 8.0%

17.10
17:00West Bromwich AlbionBlackburn RoversBlackburn Rovers · Championship22% → 24%▼ 7.9%

19.10
22:00Tottenham HotspurCoventry CityTottenham Hotspur · Premier League59% → 64%▼ 7.8%

18.10
15:00CA OsasunaReal Racing Club de SantanderReal Racing Club de Santander · La Liga24% → 25%▼ 7.5%

23.10
22:00Ipswich TownNottingham ForestNottingham Forest · Premier League36% → 39%▼ 7.3%

18.10
02:00Atlético TucumanRosario CentralAtlético Tucuman · Argentine Primera27% → 29%▼ 7.2%

15.10
01:00Sarmiento de JuninRiver PlateRiver Plate · Argentine Primera51% → 55%▼ 6.6%

25.10
19:30SunderlandLeeds UnitedSunderland · Premier League33% → 35%▼ 5.8%

23.10
22:00AlavésMálagaMálaga · La Liga21% → 22%▼ 5.4%

21.10
21:00LevanteAthletic BilbaoDraw · La Liga27% → 29%▼ 5.3%

17.10
19:00FenerbahceAlanyasporFenerbahce · Turkish Süper Lig67% → 71%▼ 5.2%

25.10
16:00Athletic BilbaoGetafeAthletic Bilbao · La Liga56% → 59%▼ 5.1%

16.10
22:00BurnleyWolverhampton WanderersBurnley · Championship30% → 32%▼ 5.1%

24.10
17:00ArsenalEvertonArsenal · Premier League65% → 68%▼ 5.0%

24.10
22:00Atlético MadridDeportivo La CoruñaAtlético Madrid · La Liga72% → 75%▼ 4.4%

14.10
21:45Queens Park RangersDerby CountyQueens Park Rangers · Championship54% → 57%▼ 4.4%

18.10
16:00Brighton and Hove AlbionCrystal PalaceBrighton and Hove Albion · Premier League58% → 61%▼ 4.1%

17.10
16:00Amed SKTorku KonyasporAmed SK · Turkish Süper Lig46% → 48%▼ 4.0%

19.10
00:00Estudiantes de Río CuartoAldosivi Mar del PlataEstudiantes de Río Cuarto · Argentine Primera34% → 35%▼ 4.0%

25.10
17:00Hull CityBrentfordBrentford · Premier League53% → 55%▼ 3.9%

19.10
22:00GetafeRayo VallecanoDraw · La Liga30% → 32%▼ 3.8%

17.10
14:30EvertonChelseaChelsea · Premier League43% → 44%▼ 3.5%

Tracked matches

Market probability 1 · X · 2

TimeMatch1X2

14.10
19:45Feyenoord – ComoChampions League27%23%50%

14.10
19:45LASK – LiverpoolChampions League11%16%73%

14.10
20:00Wehen Wiesbaden – Alemannia Aachen3. Liga - Germany40%26%34%

14.10
20:00Waldhof Mannheim – FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga - Germany47%24%28%

14.10
20:00FC Viktoria Köln 1904 – SG Sonnenhof Großaspach3. Liga - Germany59%21%19%

14.10
20:00SC Preußen Münster – Fortuna Düsseldorf3. Liga - Germany33%27%40%

14.10
20:00SC Verl – Jahn Regensburg3. Liga - Germany43%24%33%

14.10
21:45Queens Park Rangers – Derby CountyChampionship57%24%19%

14.10
21:45Norwich City – SouthamptonChampionship39%25%35%

14.10
21:45Portsmouth – Sheffield UnitedChampionship41%28%31%

14.10
22:00Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK AthensChampions League36%28%36%

14.10
22:00AS Roma – Real MadridChampions League27%24%49%

14.10
22:00Aston Villa – FenerbahceChampions League58%23%19%

14.10
22:00Bodø/Glimt – Borussia DortmundChampions League31%23%46%

14.10
22:00Manchester City – Paris Saint GermainChampions League45%24%31%

14.10
22:00Real Betis – PortoChampions League46%26%28%

14.10
22:00ŠK Slovan Bratislava – VfB StuttgartChampions League10%16%74%

14.10
22:00Lincoln City – West Ham UnitedChampionship20%23%57%

15.10
01:00Sarmiento de Junin – River PlateArgentine Primera18%27%55%

15.10
02:30CF Montreal – Atlanta United FCMLS45%25%30%

15.10
02:30Columbus Crew SC – Charlotte FCMLS47%25%28%

15.10
02:30D.C. United – New York Red BullsMLS53%24%23%

15.10
02:30FC Cincinnati – New England RevolutionMLS47%23%30%

15.10
02:30Inter Miami CF – New York City FCMLS64%20%17%

15.10
02:30Toronto FC – Orlando City SCMLS40%24%36%

15.10
03:30Chicago Fire – Philadelphia UnionMLS36%23%41%

15.10
03:30FC Dallas – Seattle Sounders FCMLS56%23%21%

15.10
03:30Nashville SC – Sporting Kansas CityMLS73%16%11%

15.10
03:30St. Louis City SC – Vancouver Whitecaps FCMLS34%25%41%

15.10
03:30Fluminense-RJ – Palmeiras-SPCopa Libertadores32%32%35%

15.10
04:30Colorado Rapids – Minnesota United FCMLS47%26%28%

15.10
04:30Real Salt Lake – San Jose EarthquakesMLS53%23%24%

15.10
05:30Los Angeles FC – Austin FCMLS65%20%15%

15.10
05:30San Diego FC – Houston DynamoMLS49%25%26%

15.10
05:30LA Galaxy – Portland TimbersMLS50%23%27%

15.10
19:45Salzburg – AC MilanEuropa League24%24%52%

15.10
19:45AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Be'er ShevaEuropa League73%16%10%

15.10
19:45Lech Poznań – Bayer LeverkusenEuropa League20%22%58%

15.10
19:45Lyon – Crystal PalaceEuropa League43%26%31%

15.10
19:45Sparta Prague – LillestromEuropa League71%18%12%

Market probabilities are measured twice a day (09:00 and 17:00, Istanbul); leagues with upcoming matches are picked automatically. Probabilities do not decide the result of a match.

What are dropping odds and how to read them?

What does dropping odds mean?

When an outcome's odds drop, the market has become more confident that it will happen. harbigol measures every match twice a day and lists outcomes whose market price has clearly dropped since the first measurement.

How is the market probability calculated?

We take prices from the world betting market, remove each bookmaker's margin and average the remaining probabilities. The result reflects the market consensus rather than one bookmaker. The site shows only these probabilities and by what percentage the market price has dropped; no odds and no bookmaker names.

What are the 4 outcomes the market trusts most?

Every morning at 08:00 (Istanbul) we publish the four outcomes the market trusts most across match result, over/under 2.5 and both teams to score, each with its market probability. Probabilities do not decide a match; the aim is to show transparently what the market thinks.

Where do the over 2.5 and BTTS probabilities come from?

Over/under 2.5 probabilities come from world market prices. The both-teams-to-score probability is calculated from the match-result and over 2.5 probabilities with a Poisson model and is labelled “calculated”.

Does harbigol offer betting?

No. harbigol does not offer betting, takes no bets, links to no betting site and never names bookmakers. Content is for information only and for adults (18+).