Match result · Over/Under 2.5 · BTTS
Dropping odds in the world market
Prices from the world betting market are stripped of each bookmaker’s margin and averaged into a single “market probability”. If an outcome’s probability has risen since our first measurement, the market has grown more confident in it. The Drop column shows by what percentage the market price has fallen since then. No bookmaker and no odds are shown. Last update: 05.11 07:30.
Dropping
19:30LiverpoolManchester UnitedLiverpool · Premier League32% → 53%▼ 39.2%
17:00Ipswich TownBournemouthBournemouth · Premier League41% → 49%▼ 15.5%
19:00GoztepeBasaksehirGoztepe · Turkish Süper Lig40% → 47%▼ 15.5%
16:00Elche CFReal BetisElche CF · La Liga25% → 30%▼ 14.7%
18:00ArsenalHull CityArsenal · Premier League74% → 82%▼ 10.1%
14:30NapoliLazioLazio · Serie A27% → 30%▼ 9.9%
15:30Leeds UnitedTottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur · Premier League32% → 35%▼ 9.5%
18:15Real SociedadRayo VallecanoReal Sociedad · La Liga51% → 57%▼ 9.5%
18:00BournemouthNottingham ForestNottingham Forest · Premier League23% → 25%▼ 9.4%
02:00VitoriaFluminenseVitoria · Brasileirão31% → 34%▼ 9.3%
18:00FulhamNewcastle UnitedFulham · Premier League42% → 46%▼ 9.1%
20:00Gazişehir GaziantepKasimpasa SKGazişehir Gaziantep · Turkish Süper Lig34% → 37%▼ 8.7%
18:00Aston VillaSunderlandAston Villa · Premier League49% → 53%▼ 8.4%
17:00Crystal PalaceLiverpoolLiverpool · Premier League54% → 59%▼ 8.4%
13:30EyüpsporKocaelisporEyüpspor · Turkish Süper Lig23% → 26%▼ 8.0%
18:00Charlton AthleticSheffield UnitedSheffield United · Championship41% → 44%▼ 7.3%
20:30VillarrealGetafeVillarreal · La Liga61% → 66%▼ 7.3%
22:45FiorentinaJuventusFiorentina · Serie A25% → 27%▼ 6.9%
23:00Derby CountyBolton WanderersBolton Wanderers · Championship31% → 34%▼ 6.7%
18:15EspanyolDeportivo La CoruñaDeportivo La Coruña · La Liga28% → 30%▼ 6.5%
18:30AlanyasporTrabzonsporTrabzonspor · Turkish Süper Lig50% → 54%▼ 6.4%
18:00Birmingham CitySwansea CityBirmingham City · Championship46% → 49%▼ 6.1%
17:00SunderlandChelseaSunderland · Premier League25% → 26%▼ 6.0%
23:00ValenciaReal MadridReal Madrid · La Liga69% → 73%▼ 6.0%
20:00Inter MilanComoComo · Serie A24% → 25%▼ 5.9%
03:30CruzeiroBahiaCruzeiro · Brasileirão51% → 54%▼ 5.4%
18:00Tottenham HotspurIpswich TownTottenham Hotspur · Premier League60% → 63%▼ 5.3%
16:00SamsunsporTorku KonyasporSamsunspor · Turkish Süper Lig39% → 41%▼ 4.8%
19:00GalatasarayAmed SKGalatasaray · Turkish Süper Lig63% → 67%▼ 4.6%
21:00Besiktas JKGenclerbirligi SKBesiktas JK · Turkish Süper Lig72% → 75%▼ 4.4%
20:45LillestromViktoria PlzeňViktoria Plzeň · Europa League41% → 43%▼ 4.3%
18:00WatfordMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · Championship61% → 64%▼ 4.0%
18:00Queens Park RangersLincoln CityQueens Park Rangers · Championship51% → 53%▼ 4.0%
20:30CA OsasunaAthletic BilbaoAthletic Bilbao · La Liga44% → 45%▼ 3.8%
23:00SevillaAlavésSevilla · La Liga47% → 49%▼ 3.4%
22:45AS RomaSassuoloAS Roma · Serie A71% → 73%▼ 3.1%
20:45Real SociedadLyonReal Sociedad · Europa League51% → 53%▼ 3.1%
15:30PortsmouthStoke CityPortsmouth · Championship39% → 40%▼ 3.0%
20:30Celta VigoLevanteCelta Vigo · La Liga51% → 53%▼ 2.7%
19:30Manchester UnitedAston VillaManchester United · Premier League42% → 44%▼ 2.7%
Tracked matches
20:45AC Milan – Ferencváros TCEuropa League72%18%11%
20:45Anderlecht – SalzburgEuropa League48%25%27%
20:45Sparta Prague – BournemouthEuropa League16%21%63%
20:45Crystal Palace – TSG HoffenheimEuropa League49%24%26%
20:45PFC Levski Sofia – Jagiellonia BiałystokEuropa League48%26%26%
20:45Lillestrom – Viktoria PlzeňEuropa League31%25%43%
20:45Real Sociedad – LyonEuropa League53%24%24%
20:45NEC Nijmegen – Omonoia FCEuropa League53%24%23%
20:45AGF Aarhus – SC BragaConference League24%28%48%
20:45FC Midtjylland – AjaxConference League35%25%39%
20:45Atalanta BC – FC KairatConference League81%13%7%
20:45FC Thun – HeartsConference League41%26%33%
20:45Mjällby AIF – FK Borac Banja LukaConference League42%29%29%
20:45KuPS Kuopio – GentConference League19%24%57%
20:45Lincoln Red Imps FC – Hajduk SplitConference League11%19%70%
20:45Red Star Belgrade – Inter Club d'EscaldesConference League89%8%3%
20:45Trabzonspor – SC FreiburgConference League38%26%36%
23:00AZ Alkmaar – JuventusEuropa League26%26%48%
23:00Bayer Leverkusen – MarseilleEuropa League69%18%13%
23:00Benfica – Lech PoznańEuropa League82%12%6%
23:00Celtic – Besiktas JKEuropa League31%25%44%
23:00Celta Vigo – Union Saint-GilloiseEuropa League43%26%31%
23:00Sunderland – Dinamo ZagrebEuropa League65%21%15%
23:00Torreense – FC Ararat-ArmeniaEuropa League54%25%21%
23:00Hapoel Be'er Sheva – OFI CreteEuropa League45%26%29%
23:00SK Sturm Graz – NK CeljeEuropa League61%22%17%
23:00AS Monaco – FC NordsjaellandConference League66%19%15%
23:00Getafe – Brighton and Hove AlbionConference League16%24%60%
23:00FC Copenhagen – FC Iberia 1999Conference League80%13%6%
23:00FC Lugano – FK Kauno ŽalgirisConference League80%13%7%
23:00FC Twente Enschede – Pafos FCConference League72%17%11%
23:00Riga FC – FK JablonecConference League41%28%31%
23:00Universitatea Craiova – KF EgnatiaConference League65%21%14%
23:00Panathinaikos FC – PFC CSKA SofiaConference League64%21%15%
23:00Sint Truiden – SK BrannConference League55%24%21%
01:30Palmeiras – RemoBrasileirão77%15%8%
03:30Cruzeiro – BahiaBrasileirão54%23%23%
20:00Gazişehir Gaziantep – Kasimpasa SKTurkish Süper Lig37%28%35%
22:30Hamburger SV – Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga40%26%34%
22:45Toulouse – StrasbourgLigue 150%25%25%
Market probabilities are measured twice a day (09:00 and 17:00, Istanbul); leagues with upcoming matches are picked automatically. Probabilities do not decide the result of a match.
What are dropping odds and how to read them?
What does dropping odds mean?
When an outcome's odds drop, the market has become more confident that it will happen. harbigol measures every match twice a day and lists outcomes whose market price has clearly dropped since the first measurement.
How is the market probability calculated?
We take prices from the world betting market, remove each bookmaker's margin and average the remaining probabilities. The result reflects the market consensus rather than one bookmaker. The site shows only these probabilities and by what percentage the market price has dropped; no odds and no bookmaker names.
What are the 4 outcomes the market trusts most?
Every morning at 08:00 (Istanbul) we publish the four outcomes the market trusts most across match result, over/under 2.5 and both teams to score, each with its market probability. Probabilities do not decide a match; the aim is to show transparently what the market thinks.
Where do the over 2.5 and BTTS probabilities come from?
Over/under 2.5 probabilities come from world market prices. The both-teams-to-score probability is calculated from the match-result and over 2.5 probabilities with a Poisson model and is labelled “calculated”.
Does harbigol offer betting?
No. harbigol does not offer betting, takes no bets, links to no betting site and never names bookmakers. Content is for information only and for adults (18+).