Tests
How our pick rules performed on 200,000+ archive matches, and how many hit live this week, with the reasons for misses. A transparent scorecard.
Live tracking (this week)
Every candidate is frozen before kick-off and checked against the final score. A rule's score blends its archive back-test with its live record, so rules that miss live drop automatically. Picks waiting for results: 13.
Daily picks (shared on our channel)
04.10
✓ West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W): Away win (2)
03.10
… Albacete Balompié U19 – Rayo Vallecano U19: Home under 1.5✓ Belarus – San Marino: Over 2.5✓ Olympic Charleroi – RFC Meux: Away under 1.5
02.10
✓ Ranheim – Egersund: Over 2.5✓ Juventude-RS – Operário-PR: Away under 1.5
01.10
✓ Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City: Over 2.5
30.09
✓ Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21: Home win (1)✓ Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FC: Home under 1.5✓ New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SC: Over 2.5
28.09
✗ Romania – Bosnia & Herzegovina: Double chance 1X✗ Belgium – France: Over 1.5… Botswana – Tunisia: Home under 1.5
27.09
✗ KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 Jaroslaw: Home under 1.5✓ Teruel – Huesca: Home under 1.5✓ RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20: Home over 1.5
26.09
… Skedsmo – Ulfstind: Home over 1.5✓ Brabrand – Nykøbing FC: Home under 1.5✓ Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FF: Home under 1.5
25.09
✓ Niger – Lesotho: Away under 1.5✗ Georgia – Northern Ireland: Double chance 1X✓ Morocco – Gabon: Home win (1)
24.09
✓ Liechtenstein – Lithuania: Home under 1.5✓ Kosovo – Republic of Ireland: Under 3.5✓ Cameroon – Comoros: Home win (1)
23.09
… Manchester United (W) – Sheffield United (W): Home over 1.5✓ Turks & Caicos – Montserrat: Home under 1.5
22.09
✓ Peterborough United – Colchester United: Over 1.5✓ Clachnacuddin – Ross County: Home under 1.5✓ Independiente Medellín – Jaguares de Córdoba: Home win (1)
Rule scorecard
| Rule | Checked | Hit | Live rate | PriorArchive | Score now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 90% · ≥20 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 89% | 89% |
| Away under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 83% | 85% |
| Home over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 82% | 83% |
| Away win (2) · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 78% | 79% |
| Home win (1) · DNB home + Over 1.5 · 90% · ≥10 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 80% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 80% · ≥3 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 74% | 76% |
| Away over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥10 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| HT under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 75% | 73% |
| HT over 0.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 76% | 70% |
| Under 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 70% · ≥20 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 72% | 69% |
Latest results
| Kick-off | Match | Pick | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.10 22:00 | Guyana – DominicaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 21:00 | Morocco – MaliInternational Friendly Matches | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 17:00 | Kyrgyzstan – LebanonInternational Friendly Matches | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 3-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 04.10 16:00 | West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W)England · Super League (W) | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 04.10 01:30 | Inter de Limeira-SP – Brusque-SCBrazil · Brasileirao Serie C | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 2-1 |
| 04.10 00:00 | CD Águila – CD CacahuatiqueEl Salvador · Primera El Salvador | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Olympic Charleroi – RFC MeuxBelgium · Eerste Nationale | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Almere City – FC VolendamNetherlands · Eerste Divisie | Over 2.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 1-0 |
| 03.10 19:00 | Belarus – San MarinoUEFA Nations League | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 13:00 | Žalgiris Vilnius – FK PanevezysClub Friendly Matches | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 03.10 02:45 | Juventude-RS – Operário-PRBrazil · Brasileirao Serie B | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 21:45 | England U21 – Slovakia U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Miss | FT 0-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 02.10 20:00 | Ranheim – EgersundNorway · OBOS-ligaen | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 04:30 | Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas CityUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:30 | New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SCUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:00 | Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FCUSA · USL Championship | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 30.09 21:30 | Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Hit | |
| 30.09 19:45 | Paris FC (W) – Arsenal (W)Champions League (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 15:00 | Comoros – NamibiaAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Under 2.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 14:00 | Santa Clara U23 – FC Felgueiras U23Portugal · Liga Revelacao U23 | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 04:06 | Club Necaxa (W) – Toluca (W)Mexico · Liga MX Femenil (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 28.09 21:00 | Defensor Sporting Reserves – Progreso ReservesUruguay · Reserve League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 28.09 02:00 | Columbus Crew – Inter Miami CFUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 23:30 | Portmore United – Humble LionsJamaica · Premier League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 4-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 21:00 | RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20Brazil · Paulista U20 | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Teruel – HuescaSpain · Primera RFEF 2 | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Lorca Deportiva CF – UD CastellonenseSpain · Segunda RFEF 3 | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 16:00 | KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 JaroslawPoland · III Liga | Home under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 05:30 | Vancouver Whitecaps – D.C. UnitedUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 02:00 | Antigua & Barbuda – AnguillaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 17:00 | Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FFSweden · Ettan Södra | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 15:00 | Brabrand – Nykøbing FCDenmark · 2nd Division | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 09:00 | China U23 – Thailand U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 21:45 | Arbroath – Queen's ParkScotland · Championship | HT under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 25.09 21:30 | England U21 – Kazakhstan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 18:30 | Bulgaria U21 – Portugal U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Away over 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 25.09 18:00 | Niger – LesothoAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 12:00 | Bangladesh – MalaysiaASEAN Cup | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 24.09 21:45 | Liechtenstein – LithuaniaUEFA Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 23.09 18:30 | HJK (W) – Brann (W)Europa Cup (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 08:30 | China U23 – United Arab Emirates U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 22.09 21:45 | Clachnacuddin – Ross CountyScotland · Challenge Cup | Home under 1.5 | Hit |
Archive back-test 2010–2019
Every archive match is treated as if it were today's: its prediction comes only from the OTHER archive matches with the same opening in that filter combination (leave-one-out). When the share reaches the threshold it counts as a prediction and is checked against the real score. Cell: hit rate and number of predictions. Green = at least 5 points above base, red = below base; framed = best combination for that bet (200+ predictions). 209,514 matches with both half-time and full-time scores.
| Bet type | DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away | DNB home + Over 2.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 | DNB home + Over 1.5 | DNB home + Under 3.5 | Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 + Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win (1)base 45% | 60.7%9,264 | 54.1%1,293 | 70.6%20,470 | 67.6%22,763 | 54.7%3,326 | 70.1%22,009 | 69.1%20,713 | 57.4%1,034 | 57.1%63 | – | 56.4%667 |
| Draw (X)base 25% | 41.7%139 | 0.0%9 | 0.0%11 | 39.7%121 | 17.6%51 | 21.1%38 | 33.3%24 | 0.0%5 | – | – | 52.9%17 |
| Away win (2)base 30% | 43.6%319 | 41.1%90 | 69.1%5,980 | 54.9%1,955 | 44.0%266 | 60.4%3,514 | 52.3%1,933 | 0.0%4 | 0.0%4 | – | 26.7%30 |
| Over 1.5base 74% | 72.4%50,885 | 73.7%9,697 | 73.5%185,105 | 73.7%124,500 | 72.5%24,316 | 74.1%152,222 | 73.4%141,178 | 74.0%186,700 | 74.4%465 | 79.4%63 | 73.4%3,946 |
| Under 1.5base 26% | 30.9%97 | 0.0%8 | 72.2%18 | 38.5%244 | 29.1%86 | 39.4%208 | 15.8%57 | 36.4%22 | – | – | 0.0%5 |
| Over 2.5base 50% | 49.8%5,377 | 47.3%1,185 | 58.2%6,379 | 57.1%13,777 | 50.6%2,912 | 56.8%12,086 | 56.6%10,568 | 66.7%7,887 | 45.2%62 | 0.0%11 | 47.0%566 |
| Under 2.5base 50% | 55.6%9,599 | 47.4%1,974 | 54.8%3,919 | 58.3%18,107 | 54.7%5,465 | 59.5%15,347 | 60.1%15,218 | 63.7%5,026 | 60.5%129 | – | 52.1%875 |
| Over 3.5base 28% | 34.1%85 | 0.0%20 | 32.2%59 | 37.8%450 | 30.0%60 | 28.1%196 | 32.5%255 | 44.8%116 | 0.0%4 | – | 34.8%23 |
| Under 3.5base 72% | 74.6%54,022 | 74.5%10,037 | 73.4%173,711 | 74.6%125,212 | 75.2%26,327 | 74.3%146,930 | 74.4%144,168 | 74.2%175,316 | 76.3%510 | 66.7%39 | 74.6%4,110 |
| BTTS: yesbase 51% | 51.9%7,062 | 52.8%1,955 | 50.4%4,275 | 55.5%13,247 | 53.4%4,559 | 56.0%10,517 | 52.5%9,963 | 56.1%1,049 | 35.8%106 | 0.0%9 | 50.6%925 |
| BTTS: nobase 49% | 49.6%6,110 | 46.7%1,209 | 53.3%2,808 | 53.5%10,962 | 48.1%3,176 | 50.8%7,412 | 54.6%8,225 | 48.0%571 | 60.0%85 | – | 49.5%606 |
| HT over 0.5base 68% | 67.8%39,517 | 67.4%7,344 | 68.8%146,642 | 69.2%97,420 | 67.9%18,974 | 69.3%121,493 | 68.6%106,898 | 69.8%152,625 | 65.2%385 | 51.2%41 | 66.4%2,978 |
| HT under 1.5base 68% | 69.9%44,502 | 69.1%8,192 | 69.2%150,748 | 69.8%103,920 | 70.0%22,097 | 69.8%120,744 | 70.3%121,053 | 69.5%151,386 | 65.7%359 | 63.4%41 | 68.8%3,327 |
| Home over 1.5base 43% | 57.8%5,631 | 50.5%847 | 67.5%11,901 | 64.5%15,442 | 53.3%2,367 | 66.0%14,344 | 63.7%12,956 | 61.5%1,448 | 55.9%34 | – | 46.7%362 |
| Home under 1.5base 57% | 61.4%16,179 | 56.9%3,231 | 69.2%51,135 | 64.3%39,014 | 61.0%9,254 | 67.1%45,637 | 66.9%44,160 | 63.4%16,963 | 55.0%140 | – | 57.5%1,338 |
| Away over 1.5base 32% | 39.1%271 | 23.4%47 | 62.4%3,982 | 48.7%1,455 | 37.1%197 | 54.5%2,791 | 46.9%1,498 | 0.0%20 | 0.0%4 | – | 21.3%47 |
| Away under 1.5base 68% | 73.2%49,184 | 71.2%8,437 | 73.2%137,270 | 74.0%112,945 | 73.0%22,473 | 73.6%125,890 | 73.7%125,932 | 69.4%160,107 | 77.4%456 | 62.5%32 | 73.1%3,500 |
| 2-3 goalsbase 46% | 50.4%3,843 | 50.4%1,076 | 44.1%1,063 | 48.3%5,316 | 46.5%2,282 | 44.1%2,448 | 44.0%2,923 | 59.5%294 | 45.7%92 | 0.0%4 | 48.9%530 |
| HT/FT 1/1base 27% | 48.6%683 | 37.1%35 | 61.8%768 | 55.9%1,543 | 51.2%248 | 49.6%774 | 54.9%1,340 | 65.8%38 | – | – | 45.0%20 |
| HT/FT 2/2base 17% | 45.5%22 | – | 54.6%403 | 39.7%63 | 0.0%12 | 43.0%270 | 15.0%60 | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT X/Xbase 16% | 0.0%10 | – | – | 0.0%9 | 0.0%5 | – | 0.0%4 | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 2/1base 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/2base 2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/Xbase 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 2/Xbase 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| More goals in 2nd halfbase 45% | 42.9%2,636 | 44.1%766 | 44.6%1,102 | 47.8%4,463 | 41.3%1,510 | 42.1%2,460 | 45.5%2,756 | 51.4%393 | 52.6%38 | 68.8%16 | 49.7%392 |
| More goals in 1st halfbase 28% | 25.2%115 | 0.0%13 | 0.0%22 | 24.7%73 | 28.4%67 | 32.9%76 | 27.1%70 | 0.0%4 | – | – | 0.0%9 |
Archive percentages describe what happened in the past; they do not decide a match. harbigol does not offer betting and shows no odds or bookmakers. 18+.
Other analysis pages
Dropping Odds · Matches: how did archive games with the same opening end? · Picks · HT/FT turnarounds