Tests
How our pick rules performed on 200,000+ archive matches, and how many hit live this week, with the reasons for misses. A transparent scorecard.
Live tracking (this week)
Every candidate is frozen before kick-off and checked against the final score. A rule's score blends its archive back-test with its live record, so rules that miss live drop automatically. Picks waiting for results: 13.
Daily picks (shared on our channel)
04.10
✓ West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W): Away win (2)
03.10
… Albacete Balompié U19 – Rayo Vallecano U19: Home under 1.5✓ Belarus – San Marino: Over 2.5✓ Olympic Charleroi – RFC Meux: Away under 1.5
02.10
✓ Ranheim – Egersund: Over 2.5✓ Juventude-RS – Operário-PR: Away under 1.5
01.10
✓ Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City: Over 2.5
30.09
✓ Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21: Home win (1)✓ Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FC: Home under 1.5✓ New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SC: Over 2.5
28.09
✗ Romania – Bosnia & Herzegovina: Double chance 1X✗ Belgium – France: Over 1.5… Botswana – Tunisia: Home under 1.5
27.09
✗ KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 Jaroslaw: Home under 1.5✓ Teruel – Huesca: Home under 1.5✓ RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20: Home over 1.5
26.09
… Skedsmo – Ulfstind: Home over 1.5✓ Brabrand – Nykøbing FC: Home under 1.5✓ Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FF: Home under 1.5
25.09
✓ Niger – Lesotho: Away under 1.5✗ Georgia – Northern Ireland: Double chance 1X✓ Morocco – Gabon: Home win (1)
24.09
✓ Liechtenstein – Lithuania: Home under 1.5✓ Kosovo – Republic of Ireland: Under 3.5✓ Cameroon – Comoros: Home win (1)
23.09
… Manchester United (W) – Sheffield United (W): Home over 1.5✓ Turks & Caicos – Montserrat: Home under 1.5
22.09
✓ Peterborough United – Colchester United: Over 1.5✓ Clachnacuddin – Ross County: Home under 1.5✓ Independiente Medellín – Jaguares de Córdoba: Home win (1)
Rule scorecard
| Rule | Checked | Hit | Live rate | PriorArchive | Score now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 90% · ≥20 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 89% | 89% |
| Away under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 83% | 85% |
| Home over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 82% | 83% |
| Away win (2) · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 78% | 79% |
| Home win (1) · DNB home + Over 1.5 · 90% · ≥10 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 80% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 80% · ≥3 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 74% | 76% |
| Away over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥10 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| HT under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 75% | 73% |
| HT over 0.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 76% | 70% |
| Under 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 70% · ≥20 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 72% | 69% |
Latest results
| Kick-off | Match | Pick | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.10 22:00 | Guyana – DominicaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 21:00 | Morocco – MaliInternational Friendly Matches | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 17:00 | Kyrgyzstan – LebanonInternational Friendly Matches | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 3-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 04.10 16:00 | West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W)England · Super League (W) | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 04.10 01:30 | Inter de Limeira-SP – Brusque-SCBrazil · Brasileirao Serie C | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 2-1 |
| 04.10 00:00 | CD Águila – CD CacahuatiqueEl Salvador · Primera El Salvador | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Olympic Charleroi – RFC MeuxBelgium · Eerste Nationale | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Almere City – FC VolendamNetherlands · Eerste Divisie | Over 2.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 1-0 |
| 03.10 19:00 | Belarus – San MarinoUEFA Nations League | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 13:00 | Žalgiris Vilnius – FK PanevezysClub Friendly Matches | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 03.10 02:45 | Juventude-RS – Operário-PRBrazil · Brasileirao Serie B | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 21:45 | England U21 – Slovakia U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Miss | FT 0-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 02.10 20:00 | Ranheim – EgersundNorway · OBOS-ligaen | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 04:30 | Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas CityUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:30 | New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SCUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:00 | Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FCUSA · USL Championship | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 30.09 21:30 | Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Hit | |
| 30.09 19:45 | Paris FC (W) – Arsenal (W)Champions League (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 15:00 | Comoros – NamibiaAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Under 2.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 14:00 | Santa Clara U23 – FC Felgueiras U23Portugal · Liga Revelacao U23 | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 04:06 | Club Necaxa (W) – Toluca (W)Mexico · Liga MX Femenil (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 28.09 21:00 | Defensor Sporting Reserves – Progreso ReservesUruguay · Reserve League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 28.09 02:00 | Columbus Crew – Inter Miami CFUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 23:30 | Portmore United – Humble LionsJamaica · Premier League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 4-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 21:00 | RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20Brazil · Paulista U20 | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Teruel – HuescaSpain · Primera RFEF 2 | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Lorca Deportiva CF – UD CastellonenseSpain · Segunda RFEF 3 | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 16:00 | KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 JaroslawPoland · III Liga | Home under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 05:30 | Vancouver Whitecaps – D.C. UnitedUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 02:00 | Antigua & Barbuda – AnguillaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 17:00 | Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FFSweden · Ettan Södra | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 15:00 | Brabrand – Nykøbing FCDenmark · 2nd Division | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 09:00 | China U23 – Thailand U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 21:45 | Arbroath – Queen's ParkScotland · Championship | HT under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 25.09 21:30 | England U21 – Kazakhstan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 18:30 | Bulgaria U21 – Portugal U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Away over 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 25.09 18:00 | Niger – LesothoAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 12:00 | Bangladesh – MalaysiaASEAN Cup | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 24.09 21:45 | Liechtenstein – LithuaniaUEFA Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 23.09 18:30 | HJK (W) – Brann (W)Europa Cup (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 08:30 | China U23 – United Arab Emirates U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 22.09 21:45 | Clachnacuddin – Ross CountyScotland · Challenge Cup | Home under 1.5 | Hit |
Archive back-test 2010–2019
Every archive match is treated as if it were today's: its prediction comes only from the OTHER archive matches with the same opening in that filter combination (leave-one-out). When the share reaches the threshold it counts as a prediction and is checked against the real score. Cell: hit rate and number of predictions. Green = at least 5 points above base, red = below base; framed = best combination for that bet (200+ predictions). 209,514 matches with both half-time and full-time scores.
| Bet type | DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away | DNB home + Over 2.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 | DNB home + Over 1.5 | DNB home + Under 3.5 | Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 + Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win (1)base 45% | 64.0%3,451 | 62.5%464 | 77.2%7,883 | 73.6%10,026 | 64.7%1,156 | 76.3%8,710 | 74.6%8,298 | 58.1%172 | 41.7%24 | – | 59.6%267 |
| Draw (X)base 25% | 56.8%37 | – | – | 45.5%22 | 0.0%4 | 0.0%3 | 0.0%3 | – | – | – | 0.0%4 |
| Away win (2)base 30% | 52.0%75 | 50.0%18 | 75.6%2,851 | 54.4%596 | 57.0%86 | 65.9%1,295 | 51.4%590 | – | – | – | 0.0%3 |
| Over 1.5base 74% | 73.5%28,152 | 72.5%5,747 | 75.8%66,731 | 75.5%68,112 | 72.6%14,117 | 75.9%79,593 | 75.7%68,258 | 78.5%78,493 | 79.2%336 | 79.5%39 | 72.0%2,494 |
| Under 1.5base 26% | 71.4%14 | – | 0.0%5 | 0.0%14 | 0.0%10 | 57.5%40 | 0.0%3 | 0.0%3 | – | – | – |
| Over 2.5base 50% | 52.2%1,263 | 47.1%340 | 55.7%996 | 59.9%3,527 | 52.2%879 | 62.4%2,197 | 56.8%2,611 | 71.9%1,235 | 50.0%20 | – | 44.5%155 |
| Under 2.5base 50% | 55.0%2,965 | 58.3%578 | 52.0%548 | 62.2%4,939 | 54.7%1,636 | 60.5%3,006 | 61.1%2,793 | 71.8%439 | 52.3%44 | – | 61.2%281 |
| Over 3.5base 28% | 0.0%6 | – | 68.8%16 | 41.5%53 | 0.0%7 | 40.0%25 | 50.0%46 | 61.1%18 | – | – | 0.0%3 |
| Under 3.5base 72% | 75.7%33,757 | 73.8%6,415 | 74.5%73,966 | 75.9%73,712 | 74.7%17,132 | 76.3%78,553 | 76.7%83,566 | 78.6%76,700 | 70.1%328 | 50.0%18 | 75.3%2,874 |
| BTTS: yesbase 51% | 47.0%1,671 | 48.6%592 | 56.9%624 | 53.2%2,807 | 54.7%1,320 | 55.0%1,819 | 54.8%2,086 | 59.5%84 | 50.0%22 | – | 55.7%287 |
| BTTS: nobase 49% | 49.7%1,628 | 45.8%301 | 51.3%493 | 54.1%2,356 | 51.5%759 | 58.5%1,458 | 45.8%1,184 | 49.4%81 | 0.0%19 | – | 52.3%149 |
| HT over 0.5base 68% | 68.4%16,753 | 66.5%3,499 | 71.4%21,965 | 70.5%36,825 | 68.5%9,210 | 70.8%35,063 | 70.6%31,720 | 75.4%20,335 | 59.4%180 | 0.0%8 | 65.5%1,514 |
| HT under 1.5base 68% | 70.0%21,407 | 68.6%4,231 | 69.7%19,701 | 71.2%42,260 | 70.6%11,448 | 71.0%38,189 | 71.3%41,326 | 74.5%20,028 | 65.0%197 | 50.0%18 | 68.3%1,771 |
| Home over 1.5base 43% | 60.1%1,988 | 40.2%194 | 72.1%2,003 | 67.0%5,169 | 52.6%701 | 72.4%4,009 | 69.1%4,206 | 38.7%173 | 58.8%17 | – | 42.9%91 |
| Home under 1.5base 57% | 63.3%5,803 | 62.1%1,199 | 74.7%14,149 | 67.3%13,912 | 60.4%3,494 | 69.1%14,875 | 70.6%13,950 | 63.4%524 | 61.7%47 | – | 64.1%546 |
| Away over 1.5base 32% | 46.9%64 | 78.6%14 | 67.4%1,292 | 50.0%372 | 47.9%48 | 60.8%943 | 44.5%346 | – | – | – | 90.9%11 |
| Away under 1.5base 68% | 74.9%28,136 | 73.1%5,007 | 77.8%53,896 | 76.6%64,282 | 73.8%13,647 | 77.6%64,542 | 76.9%63,759 | 73.8%15,129 | 75.7%338 | 83.3%24 | 74.0%2,297 |
| 2-3 goalsbase 46% | 51.2%994 | 39.3%295 | 42.2%147 | 44.0%966 | 52.6%608 | 47.7%377 | 42.6%418 | 0.0%25 | 63.2%38 | – | 45.8%166 |
| HT/FT 1/1base 27% | 58.4%190 | 76.5%17 | 33.9%62 | 53.0%451 | 53.8%91 | 55.9%93 | 66.4%405 | 81.8%11 | – | – | 81.8%11 |
| HT/FT 2/2base 17% | 0.0%4 | – | 68.5%108 | 0.0%10 | – | 51.3%78 | 0.0%4 | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT X/Xbase 16% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 2/1base 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/2base 2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/Xbase 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 2/Xbase 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| More goals in 2nd halfbase 45% | 45.7%584 | 48.1%158 | 41.8%146 | 39.8%754 | 49.7%350 | 49.1%424 | 47.2%479 | 0.0%28 | 0.0%4 | – | 53.4%116 |
| More goals in 1st halfbase 28% | 0.0%8 | – | – | 0.0%8 | 58.8%17 | 0.0%9 | 0.0%3 | – | – | – | – |
Archive percentages describe what happened in the past; they do not decide a match. harbigol does not offer betting and shows no odds or bookmakers. 18+.
Other analysis pages
Dropping Odds · Matches: how did archive games with the same opening end? · Picks · HT/FT turnarounds