Tests
How our pick rules performed on 200,000+ archive matches, and how many hit live this week, with the reasons for misses. A transparent scorecard.
Live tracking (this week)
Every candidate is frozen before kick-off and checked against the final score. A rule's score blends its archive back-test with its live record, so rules that miss live drop automatically. Picks waiting for results: 13.
Daily picks (shared on our channel)
04.10
✓ West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W): Away win (2)
03.10
… Albacete Balompié U19 – Rayo Vallecano U19: Home under 1.5✓ Belarus – San Marino: Over 2.5✓ Olympic Charleroi – RFC Meux: Away under 1.5
02.10
✓ Ranheim – Egersund: Over 2.5✓ Juventude-RS – Operário-PR: Away under 1.5
01.10
✓ Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City: Over 2.5
30.09
✓ Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21: Home win (1)✓ Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FC: Home under 1.5✓ New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SC: Over 2.5
28.09
✗ Romania – Bosnia & Herzegovina: Double chance 1X✗ Belgium – France: Over 1.5… Botswana – Tunisia: Home under 1.5
27.09
✗ KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 Jaroslaw: Home under 1.5✓ Teruel – Huesca: Home under 1.5✓ RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20: Home over 1.5
26.09
… Skedsmo – Ulfstind: Home over 1.5✓ Brabrand – Nykøbing FC: Home under 1.5✓ Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FF: Home under 1.5
25.09
✓ Niger – Lesotho: Away under 1.5✗ Georgia – Northern Ireland: Double chance 1X✓ Morocco – Gabon: Home win (1)
24.09
✓ Liechtenstein – Lithuania: Home under 1.5✓ Kosovo – Republic of Ireland: Under 3.5✓ Cameroon – Comoros: Home win (1)
23.09
… Manchester United (W) – Sheffield United (W): Home over 1.5✓ Turks & Caicos – Montserrat: Home under 1.5
22.09
✓ Peterborough United – Colchester United: Over 1.5✓ Clachnacuddin – Ross County: Home under 1.5✓ Independiente Medellín – Jaguares de Córdoba: Home win (1)
Rule scorecard
| Rule | Checked | Hit | Live rate | PriorArchive | Score now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 90% · ≥20 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 89% | 89% |
| Away under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 83% | 85% |
| Home over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 82% | 83% |
| Away win (2) · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 78% | 79% |
| Home win (1) · DNB home + Over 1.5 · 90% · ≥10 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 80% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 80% · ≥3 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 74% | 76% |
| Away over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥10 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| HT under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 75% | 73% |
| HT over 0.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 76% | 70% |
| Under 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 70% · ≥20 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 72% | 69% |
Latest results
| Kick-off | Match | Pick | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.10 22:00 | Guyana – DominicaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 21:00 | Morocco – MaliInternational Friendly Matches | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 17:00 | Kyrgyzstan – LebanonInternational Friendly Matches | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 3-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 04.10 16:00 | West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W)England · Super League (W) | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 04.10 01:30 | Inter de Limeira-SP – Brusque-SCBrazil · Brasileirao Serie C | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 2-1 |
| 04.10 00:00 | CD Águila – CD CacahuatiqueEl Salvador · Primera El Salvador | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Olympic Charleroi – RFC MeuxBelgium · Eerste Nationale | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Almere City – FC VolendamNetherlands · Eerste Divisie | Over 2.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 1-0 |
| 03.10 19:00 | Belarus – San MarinoUEFA Nations League | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 13:00 | Žalgiris Vilnius – FK PanevezysClub Friendly Matches | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 03.10 02:45 | Juventude-RS – Operário-PRBrazil · Brasileirao Serie B | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 21:45 | England U21 – Slovakia U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Miss | FT 0-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 02.10 20:00 | Ranheim – EgersundNorway · OBOS-ligaen | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 04:30 | Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas CityUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:30 | New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SCUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:00 | Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FCUSA · USL Championship | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 30.09 21:30 | Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Hit | |
| 30.09 19:45 | Paris FC (W) – Arsenal (W)Champions League (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 15:00 | Comoros – NamibiaAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Under 2.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 14:00 | Santa Clara U23 – FC Felgueiras U23Portugal · Liga Revelacao U23 | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 04:06 | Club Necaxa (W) – Toluca (W)Mexico · Liga MX Femenil (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 28.09 21:00 | Defensor Sporting Reserves – Progreso ReservesUruguay · Reserve League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 28.09 02:00 | Columbus Crew – Inter Miami CFUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 23:30 | Portmore United – Humble LionsJamaica · Premier League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 4-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 21:00 | RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20Brazil · Paulista U20 | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Teruel – HuescaSpain · Primera RFEF 2 | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Lorca Deportiva CF – UD CastellonenseSpain · Segunda RFEF 3 | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 16:00 | KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 JaroslawPoland · III Liga | Home under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 05:30 | Vancouver Whitecaps – D.C. UnitedUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 02:00 | Antigua & Barbuda – AnguillaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 17:00 | Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FFSweden · Ettan Södra | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 15:00 | Brabrand – Nykøbing FCDenmark · 2nd Division | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 09:00 | China U23 – Thailand U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 21:45 | Arbroath – Queen's ParkScotland · Championship | HT under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 25.09 21:30 | England U21 – Kazakhstan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 18:30 | Bulgaria U21 – Portugal U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Away over 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 25.09 18:00 | Niger – LesothoAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 12:00 | Bangladesh – MalaysiaASEAN Cup | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 24.09 21:45 | Liechtenstein – LithuaniaUEFA Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 23.09 18:30 | HJK (W) – Brann (W)Europa Cup (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 08:30 | China U23 – United Arab Emirates U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 22.09 21:45 | Clachnacuddin – Ross CountyScotland · Challenge Cup | Home under 1.5 | Hit |
Archive back-test 2010–2019
Every archive match is treated as if it were today's: its prediction comes only from the OTHER archive matches with the same opening in that filter combination (leave-one-out). When the share reaches the threshold it counts as a prediction and is checked against the real score. Cell: hit rate and number of predictions. Green = at least 5 points above base, red = below base; framed = best combination for that bet (200+ predictions). 209,514 matches with both half-time and full-time scores.
| Bet type | DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away | DNB home + Over 2.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 | DNB home + Over 1.5 | DNB home + Under 3.5 | Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 + Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win (1)base 45% | 65.8%699 | 57.8%64 | 82.2%1,430 | 82.1%2,735 | 67.9%268 | 78.9%1,770 | 78.6%2,132 | 0.0%6 | – | – | 37.0%27 |
| Draw (X)base 25% | 0.0%2 | – | – | 0.0%2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Away win (2)base 30% | 0.0%4 | 0.0%2 | 74.7%720 | 50.0%76 | 0.0%10 | 67.1%298 | 61.9%84 | – | – | – | – |
| Over 1.5base 74% | 74.4%7,437 | 75.2%1,844 | 78.5%6,826 | 78.5%17,073 | 74.8%4,140 | 79.4%14,953 | 77.8%13,303 | 84.3%8,336 | 78.8%137 | 91.3%23 | 75.7%882 |
| Under 1.5base 26% | 90.9%11 | – | – | – | – | 0.0%3 | – | – | – | – | – |
| Over 2.5base 50% | 43.5%168 | 53.3%45 | 70.3%138 | 52.2%431 | 62.2%90 | 50.0%246 | 60.9%297 | 77.4%248 | 0.0%2 | – | 0.0%11 |
| Under 2.5base 50% | 59.8%383 | 58.7%92 | 0.0%15 | 62.9%676 | 55.3%199 | 52.2%324 | 58.0%257 | 75.9%29 | 0.0%5 | – | 35.7%28 |
| Over 3.5base 28% | – | – | 0.0%2 | – | – | 0.0%2 | 0.0%5 | 91.7%12 | – | – | – |
| Under 3.5base 72% | 76.3%10,171 | 76.4%2,242 | 71.3%3,221 | 78.7%17,751 | 77.5%6,064 | 78.6%14,132 | 78.8%15,187 | 81.3%2,578 | 71.7%120 | 0.0%2 | 73.9%937 |
| BTTS: yesbase 51% | 26.3%114 | 57.8%102 | 58.1%105 | 47.4%249 | 50.6%158 | 58.2%244 | 53.5%226 | 68.8%16 | 91.7%12 | – | 25.0%40 |
| BTTS: nobase 49% | 45.8%120 | 50.0%28 | 0.0%18 | 54.1%244 | 50.0%108 | 40.4%146 | 60.2%133 | 0.0%4 | – | – | 0.0%11 |
| HT over 0.5base 68% | 71.2%3,861 | 68.2%818 | 73.2%2,489 | 71.5%6,539 | 70.7%2,103 | 70.1%4,321 | 73.0%4,942 | 76.6%1,223 | 58.7%46 | – | 68.5%406 |
| HT under 1.5base 68% | 70.5%4,807 | 69.3%1,079 | 67.2%1,363 | 71.8%7,039 | 68.2%2,670 | 73.4%4,772 | 71.1%4,446 | 77.4%514 | 34.5%29 | 0.0%2 | 74.9%597 |
| Home over 1.5base 43% | 65.7%359 | 52.4%21 | 75.9%324 | 71.0%993 | 54.9%102 | 77.1%493 | 74.3%912 | 0.0%12 | – | – | 76.9%13 |
| Home under 1.5base 57% | 60.8%1,026 | 65.4%257 | 81.2%2,988 | 67.7%2,573 | 61.6%666 | 72.1%3,024 | 73.0%2,708 | 83.3%96 | 83.3%24 | – | 52.7%93 |
| Away over 1.5base 32% | 78.6%14 | – | 75.2%274 | 63.8%47 | 0.0%3 | 65.6%192 | 0.0%23 | – | – | – | 90.9%11 |
| Away under 1.5base 68% | 77.3%8,847 | 74.5%1,607 | 81.2%7,502 | 80.9%17,093 | 74.8%4,236 | 81.3%13,372 | 80.6%13,675 | 73.4%470 | 76.7%120 | 0.0%4 | 75.2%790 |
| 2-3 goalsbase 46% | 36.5%85 | 0.0%11 | 80.0%15 | 38.8%67 | 20.4%49 | 72.7%55 | 70.6%34 | – | 0.0%2 | – | 0.0%4 |
| HT/FT 1/1base 27% | 75.5%53 | – | 0.0%4 | 56.5%46 | 0.0%6 | 0.0%6 | 69.4%72 | 0.0%2 | – | – | 0.0%2 |
| HT/FT 2/2base 17% | – | – | 0.0%7 | – | – | 0.0%4 | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT X/Xbase 16% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 2/1base 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/2base 2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/Xbase 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 2/Xbase 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| More goals in 2nd halfbase 45% | 46.0%50 | 55.0%20 | 77.4%31 | 31.9%47 | 63.9%36 | 36.1%36 | 35.7%28 | – | – | – | 45.5%22 |
| More goals in 1st halfbase 28% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Archive percentages describe what happened in the past; they do not decide a match. harbigol does not offer betting and shows no odds or bookmakers. 18+.
Other analysis pages
Dropping Odds · Matches: how did archive games with the same opening end? · Picks · HT/FT turnarounds