Tests
How our pick rules performed on 200,000+ archive matches, and how many hit live this week, with the reasons for misses. A transparent scorecard.
Live tracking (this week)
Every candidate is frozen before kick-off and checked against the final score. A rule's score blends its archive back-test with its live record, so rules that miss live drop automatically. Picks waiting for results: 13.
Daily picks (shared on our channel)
04.10
✓ West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W): Away win (2)
03.10
… Albacete Balompié U19 – Rayo Vallecano U19: Home under 1.5✓ Belarus – San Marino: Over 2.5✓ Olympic Charleroi – RFC Meux: Away under 1.5
02.10
✓ Ranheim – Egersund: Over 2.5✓ Juventude-RS – Operário-PR: Away under 1.5
01.10
✓ Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City: Over 2.5
30.09
✓ Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21: Home win (1)✓ Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FC: Home under 1.5✓ New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SC: Over 2.5
28.09
✗ Romania – Bosnia & Herzegovina: Double chance 1X✗ Belgium – France: Over 1.5… Botswana – Tunisia: Home under 1.5
27.09
✗ KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 Jaroslaw: Home under 1.5✓ Teruel – Huesca: Home under 1.5✓ RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20: Home over 1.5
26.09
… Skedsmo – Ulfstind: Home over 1.5✓ Brabrand – Nykøbing FC: Home under 1.5✓ Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FF: Home under 1.5
25.09
✓ Niger – Lesotho: Away under 1.5✗ Georgia – Northern Ireland: Double chance 1X✓ Morocco – Gabon: Home win (1)
24.09
✓ Liechtenstein – Lithuania: Home under 1.5✓ Kosovo – Republic of Ireland: Under 3.5✓ Cameroon – Comoros: Home win (1)
23.09
… Manchester United (W) – Sheffield United (W): Home over 1.5✓ Turks & Caicos – Montserrat: Home under 1.5
22.09
✓ Peterborough United – Colchester United: Over 1.5✓ Clachnacuddin – Ross County: Home under 1.5✓ Independiente Medellín – Jaguares de Córdoba: Home win (1)
Rule scorecard
| Rule | Checked | Hit | Live rate | PriorArchive | Score now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 90% · ≥20 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 89% | 89% |
| Away under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 83% | 85% |
| Home over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 82% | 83% |
| Away win (2) · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 78% | 79% |
| Home win (1) · DNB home + Over 1.5 · 90% · ≥10 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 80% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 80% · ≥3 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 74% | 76% |
| Away over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥10 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| HT under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 75% | 73% |
| HT over 0.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 76% | 70% |
| Under 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 70% · ≥20 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 72% | 69% |
Latest results
| Kick-off | Match | Pick | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.10 22:00 | Guyana – DominicaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 21:00 | Morocco – MaliInternational Friendly Matches | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 17:00 | Kyrgyzstan – LebanonInternational Friendly Matches | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 3-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 04.10 16:00 | West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W)England · Super League (W) | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 04.10 01:30 | Inter de Limeira-SP – Brusque-SCBrazil · Brasileirao Serie C | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 2-1 |
| 04.10 00:00 | CD Águila – CD CacahuatiqueEl Salvador · Primera El Salvador | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Olympic Charleroi – RFC MeuxBelgium · Eerste Nationale | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Almere City – FC VolendamNetherlands · Eerste Divisie | Over 2.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 1-0 |
| 03.10 19:00 | Belarus – San MarinoUEFA Nations League | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 13:00 | Žalgiris Vilnius – FK PanevezysClub Friendly Matches | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 03.10 02:45 | Juventude-RS – Operário-PRBrazil · Brasileirao Serie B | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 21:45 | England U21 – Slovakia U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Miss | FT 0-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 02.10 20:00 | Ranheim – EgersundNorway · OBOS-ligaen | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 04:30 | Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas CityUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:30 | New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SCUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:00 | Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FCUSA · USL Championship | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 30.09 21:30 | Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Hit | |
| 30.09 19:45 | Paris FC (W) – Arsenal (W)Champions League (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 15:00 | Comoros – NamibiaAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Under 2.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 14:00 | Santa Clara U23 – FC Felgueiras U23Portugal · Liga Revelacao U23 | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 04:06 | Club Necaxa (W) – Toluca (W)Mexico · Liga MX Femenil (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 28.09 21:00 | Defensor Sporting Reserves – Progreso ReservesUruguay · Reserve League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 28.09 02:00 | Columbus Crew – Inter Miami CFUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 23:30 | Portmore United – Humble LionsJamaica · Premier League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 4-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 21:00 | RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20Brazil · Paulista U20 | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Teruel – HuescaSpain · Primera RFEF 2 | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Lorca Deportiva CF – UD CastellonenseSpain · Segunda RFEF 3 | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 16:00 | KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 JaroslawPoland · III Liga | Home under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 05:30 | Vancouver Whitecaps – D.C. UnitedUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 02:00 | Antigua & Barbuda – AnguillaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 17:00 | Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FFSweden · Ettan Södra | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 15:00 | Brabrand – Nykøbing FCDenmark · 2nd Division | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 09:00 | China U23 – Thailand U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 21:45 | Arbroath – Queen's ParkScotland · Championship | HT under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 25.09 21:30 | England U21 – Kazakhstan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 18:30 | Bulgaria U21 – Portugal U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Away over 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 25.09 18:00 | Niger – LesothoAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 12:00 | Bangladesh – MalaysiaASEAN Cup | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 24.09 21:45 | Liechtenstein – LithuaniaUEFA Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 23.09 18:30 | HJK (W) – Brann (W)Europa Cup (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 08:30 | China U23 – United Arab Emirates U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 22.09 21:45 | Clachnacuddin – Ross CountyScotland · Challenge Cup | Home under 1.5 | Hit |
Archive back-test 2010–2019
Every archive match is treated as if it were today's: its prediction comes only from the OTHER archive matches with the same opening in that filter combination (leave-one-out). When the share reaches the threshold it counts as a prediction and is checked against the real score. Cell: hit rate and number of predictions. Green = at least 5 points above base, red = below base; framed = best combination for that bet (200+ predictions). 209,514 matches with both half-time and full-time scores.
| Bet type | DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away | DNB home + Over 2.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 | DNB home + Over 1.5 | DNB home + Under 3.5 | Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 + Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win (1)base 45% | 60.8%14,912 | 53.2%6,989 | 76.5%8,438 | 70.5%13,542 | 59.0%12,128 | 74.2%9,574 | 72.6%10,670 | 62.2%519 | 54.2%2,712 | 50.0%524 | 53.6%4,304 |
| Draw (X)base 25% | 28.3%1,440 | 30.1%1,173 | 7.7%52 | 24.2%451 | 30.2%1,506 | 30.9%194 | 22.9%188 | 0.0%7 | 26.5%471 | 18.8%154 | 27.5%795 |
| Away win (2)base 30% | 42.2%2,930 | 35.9%1,645 | 73.2%3,742 | 58.2%4,579 | 46.9%2,800 | 65.6%3,919 | 61.5%3,819 | 29.3%41 | 31.2%519 | 35.2%165 | 36.5%1,023 |
| Over 1.5base 74% | 73.7%64,666 | 72.5%27,926 | 75.9%69,773 | 75.6%87,487 | 73.1%48,042 | 75.9%87,384 | 76.1%80,521 | 78.6%79,520 | 73.6%8,716 | 73.8%2,031 | 72.4%16,524 |
| Under 1.5base 26% | 32.5%1,640 | 28.8%1,306 | 25.8%66 | 28.1%602 | 32.1%1,882 | 34.2%316 | 21.7%198 | 0.0%9 | 27.3%498 | 39.2%148 | 27.3%821 |
| Over 2.5base 50% | 51.9%11,924 | 49.7%6,805 | 55.5%1,957 | 56.9%9,593 | 53.0%11,089 | 58.7%4,540 | 58.5%7,078 | 72.7%1,848 | 49.5%2,739 | 51.2%644 | 48.0%4,091 |
| Under 2.5base 50% | 54.5%15,672 | 54.6%9,823 | 53.4%1,179 | 57.9%10,118 | 54.9%14,625 | 58.8%5,330 | 54.5%4,952 | 69.1%534 | 53.5%3,338 | 54.4%846 | 53.4%6,051 |
| Over 3.5base 28% | 29.4%1,776 | 33.5%1,094 | 40.7%182 | 38.2%1,202 | 33.9%1,779 | 37.8%421 | 36.5%913 | 49.8%203 | 30.5%410 | 32.1%106 | 28.5%596 |
| Under 3.5base 72% | 75.1%71,462 | 74.8%31,733 | 74.4%76,258 | 75.4%90,805 | 74.7%52,685 | 76.2%85,827 | 76.1%91,689 | 78.6%77,019 | 73.9%9,115 | 74.9%2,278 | 75.4%18,628 |
| BTTS: yesbase 51% | 50.1%13,126 | 51.0%8,432 | 55.5%1,440 | 54.2%8,882 | 52.0%12,500 | 54.3%3,848 | 55.5%5,828 | 53.4%281 | 53.7%3,383 | 59.1%898 | 51.9%5,500 |
| BTTS: nobase 49% | 51.8%12,381 | 49.9%7,647 | 52.2%1,250 | 50.6%7,115 | 51.7%11,627 | 54.4%3,659 | 48.4%3,782 | 48.7%261 | 53.1%2,755 | 51.1%664 | 50.8%4,760 |
| HT over 0.5base 68% | 68.7%46,434 | 67.8%21,929 | 71.3%24,358 | 70.5%52,519 | 68.5%36,914 | 70.6%41,337 | 71.1%41,523 | 75.6%21,177 | 69.3%7,322 | 68.8%1,713 | 67.4%12,962 |
| HT under 1.5base 68% | 70.1%52,594 | 70.5%25,237 | 69.5%21,615 | 70.6%56,323 | 70.3%41,429 | 70.7%44,127 | 70.4%48,313 | 74.2%20,320 | 69.3%7,461 | 68.8%1,767 | 69.5%14,787 |
| Home over 1.5base 43% | 56.2%11,029 | 49.7%5,428 | 69.3%2,534 | 62.0%8,368 | 55.1%9,570 | 68.5%4,675 | 66.2%6,544 | 55.6%523 | 48.6%2,179 | 46.0%443 | 50.6%3,341 |
| Home under 1.5base 57% | 63.1%24,499 | 60.4%13,386 | 74.5%16,208 | 68.8%26,473 | 62.3%21,102 | 70.9%21,575 | 71.5%21,414 | 61.4%720 | 57.3%4,192 | 58.7%1,132 | 60.5%8,226 |
| Away over 1.5base 32% | 40.9%3,052 | 34.3%1,779 | 64.6%2,027 | 53.0%3,844 | 42.2%2,825 | 61.8%3,045 | 54.4%3,077 | 63.2%95 | 34.9%616 | 37.8%201 | 33.2%1,069 |
| Away under 1.5base 68% | 73.9%61,748 | 73.0%26,714 | 77.6%55,520 | 75.5%75,691 | 73.5%45,775 | 77.2%68,440 | 76.2%69,105 | 73.6%15,611 | 72.0%8,283 | 71.9%1,910 | 73.3%15,759 |
| 2-3 goalsbase 46% | 47.3%9,382 | 46.7%6,293 | 42.9%636 | 45.0%4,522 | 46.8%8,576 | 46.3%1,800 | 44.5%2,271 | 38.6%114 | 44.5%2,319 | 43.6%587 | 48.6%4,075 |
| HT/FT 1/1base 27% | 43.1%2,750 | 35.4%1,431 | 35.8%190 | 50.1%1,187 | 39.8%2,565 | 44.1%256 | 54.2%898 | 52.0%125 | 37.1%623 | 29.8%104 | 38.6%926 |
| HT/FT 2/2base 17% | 26.8%545 | 24.4%279 | 51.2%260 | 42.6%863 | 33.9%513 | 46.4%597 | 46.6%757 | 53.3%15 | 24.7%81 | 20.5%39 | 19.6%153 |
| HT/FT X/Xbase 16% | 11.8%305 | 26.4%303 | 0.0%6 | 21.9%96 | 17.7%384 | 20.7%58 | 19.5%41 | – | 20.0%120 | 33.3%48 | 19.9%226 |
| HT/FT 2/1base 3% | 0.0%1 | 0.0%4 | – | 0.0%2 | – | – | 0.0%2 | – | – | 0.0%2 | 0.0%2 |
| HT/FT 1/2base 2% | 0.0%2 | – | – | – | 0.0%2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/Xbase 5% | 0.0%9 | 0.0%4 | – | 0.0%2 | 0.0%10 | 0.0%3 | 0.0%2 | – | 0.0%2 | 0.0%1 | 0.0%4 |
| HT/FT 2/Xbase 5% | 50.0%8 | 0.0%8 | – | 0.0%2 | 0.0%15 | – | – | – | 0.0%1 | 0.0%3 | 0.0%6 |
| More goals in 2nd halfbase 45% | 45.8%8,286 | 42.8%5,330 | 46.3%643 | 45.3%4,516 | 44.8%7,852 | 44.2%1,781 | 45.8%2,668 | 35.7%227 | 46.4%2,062 | 46.4%509 | 42.5%3,385 |
| More goals in 1st halfbase 28% | 28.4%1,641 | 30.5%1,293 | 26.9%67 | 30.0%729 | 30.6%1,788 | 24.7%275 | 36.8%481 | 40.0%10 | 22.1%497 | 35.3%116 | 31.0%827 |
Archive percentages describe what happened in the past; they do not decide a match. harbigol does not offer betting and shows no odds or bookmakers. 18+.
Other analysis pages
Dropping Odds · Matches: how did archive games with the same opening end? · Picks · HT/FT turnarounds