Tests
How our pick rules performed on 200,000+ archive matches, and how many hit live this week, with the reasons for misses. A transparent scorecard.
Live tracking (this week)
Every candidate is frozen before kick-off and checked against the final score. A rule's score blends its archive back-test with its live record, so rules that miss live drop automatically. Picks waiting for results: 13.
Daily picks (shared on our channel)
04.10
✓ West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W): Away win (2)
03.10
… Albacete Balompié U19 – Rayo Vallecano U19: Home under 1.5✓ Belarus – San Marino: Over 2.5✓ Olympic Charleroi – RFC Meux: Away under 1.5
02.10
✓ Ranheim – Egersund: Over 2.5✓ Juventude-RS – Operário-PR: Away under 1.5
01.10
✓ Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas City: Over 2.5
30.09
✓ Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21: Home win (1)✓ Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FC: Home under 1.5✓ New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SC: Over 2.5
28.09
✗ Romania – Bosnia & Herzegovina: Double chance 1X✗ Belgium – France: Over 1.5… Botswana – Tunisia: Home under 1.5
27.09
✗ KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 Jaroslaw: Home under 1.5✓ Teruel – Huesca: Home under 1.5✓ RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20: Home over 1.5
26.09
… Skedsmo – Ulfstind: Home over 1.5✓ Brabrand – Nykøbing FC: Home under 1.5✓ Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FF: Home under 1.5
25.09
✓ Niger – Lesotho: Away under 1.5✗ Georgia – Northern Ireland: Double chance 1X✓ Morocco – Gabon: Home win (1)
24.09
✓ Liechtenstein – Lithuania: Home under 1.5✓ Kosovo – Republic of Ireland: Under 3.5✓ Cameroon – Comoros: Home win (1)
23.09
… Manchester United (W) – Sheffield United (W): Home over 1.5✓ Turks & Caicos – Montserrat: Home under 1.5
22.09
✓ Peterborough United – Colchester United: Over 1.5✓ Clachnacuddin – Ross County: Home under 1.5✓ Independiente Medellín – Jaguares de Córdoba: Home win (1)
Rule scorecard
| Rule | Checked | Hit | Live rate | PriorArchive | Score now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 90% · ≥20 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 89% | 89% |
| Away under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 83% | 85% |
| Home over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 82% | 83% |
| Away win (2) · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥20 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 78% | 79% |
| Home win (1) · DNB home + Over 1.5 · 90% · ≥10 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 80% | 79% |
| Over 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 80% · ≥3 | 8 | 7 | 88% | 74% | 76% |
| Away over 1.5 · DNB home + DNB away · 80% · ≥10 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| HT under 1.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 75% | 73% |
| HT over 0.5 · DNB home + Over 2.5 · 90% · ≥20 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 76% | 70% |
| Under 2.5 · Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 · 70% · ≥20 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 72% | 69% |
Latest results
| Kick-off | Match | Pick | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.10 22:00 | Guyana – DominicaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 21:00 | Morocco – MaliInternational Friendly Matches | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 04.10 17:00 | Kyrgyzstan – LebanonInternational Friendly Matches | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 3-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 04.10 16:00 | West Ham United (W) – Chelsea (W)England · Super League (W) | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 04.10 01:30 | Inter de Limeira-SP – Brusque-SCBrazil · Brasileirao Serie C | Under 2.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 2-1 |
| 04.10 00:00 | CD Águila – CD CacahuatiqueEl Salvador · Primera El Salvador | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Olympic Charleroi – RFC MeuxBelgium · Eerste Nationale | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 21:00 | Almere City – FC VolendamNetherlands · Eerste Divisie | Over 2.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 1-0 |
| 03.10 19:00 | Belarus – San MarinoUEFA Nations League | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 03.10 13:00 | Žalgiris Vilnius – FK PanevezysClub Friendly Matches | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 03.10 02:45 | Juventude-RS – Operário-PRBrazil · Brasileirao Serie B | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 21:45 | England U21 – Slovakia U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Miss | FT 0-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 02.10 20:00 | Ranheim – EgersundNorway · OBOS-ligaen | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 02.10 04:30 | Seattle Sounders – Sporting Kansas CityUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:30 | New York Red Bulls – St. Louis City SCUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 01.10 02:00 | Brooklyn FC – Detroit City FCUSA · USL Championship | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 30.09 21:30 | Scotland U21 – Azerbaijan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Home win (1) | Hit | |
| 30.09 19:45 | Paris FC (W) – Arsenal (W)Champions League (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 15:00 | Comoros – NamibiaAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Under 2.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 14:00 | Santa Clara U23 – FC Felgueiras U23Portugal · Liga Revelacao U23 | HT over 0.5 | Hit | |
| 29.09 04:06 | Club Necaxa (W) – Toluca (W)Mexico · Liga MX Femenil (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 28.09 21:00 | Defensor Sporting Reserves – Progreso ReservesUruguay · Reserve League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 0-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 28.09 02:00 | Columbus Crew – Inter Miami CFUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 23:30 | Portmore United – Humble LionsJamaica · Premier League | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 4-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 21:00 | RB Bragantino-SP U20 – Bandeirante SP U20Brazil · Paulista U20 | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Teruel – HuescaSpain · Primera RFEF 2 | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 20:00 | Lorca Deportiva CF – UD CastellonenseSpain · Segunda RFEF 3 | HT over 0.5 | Miss | FT 1-0 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 16:00 | KS Moravia Morawica – JKS 1909 JaroslawPoland · III Liga | Home under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-2 · HT 0-0 |
| 27.09 05:30 | Vancouver Whitecaps – D.C. UnitedUSA · MLS | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 27.09 02:00 | Antigua & Barbuda – AnguillaCONCACAF · Nations League | Home over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 17:00 | Laholms FK – Åtvidabergs FFSweden · Ettan Södra | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 15:00 | Brabrand – Nykøbing FCDenmark · 2nd Division | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 26.09 09:00 | China U23 – Thailand U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 21:45 | Arbroath – Queen's ParkScotland · Championship | HT under 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 2-0 |
| 25.09 21:30 | England U21 – Kazakhstan U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Over 2.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 18:30 | Bulgaria U21 – Portugal U21UEFA Championship Qualification U21 | Away over 1.5 | Miss | FT 2-1 · HT 0-0 |
| 25.09 18:00 | Niger – LesothoAfrica Cup of Nations Qualification | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 25.09 12:00 | Bangladesh – MalaysiaASEAN Cup | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 24.09 21:45 | Liechtenstein – LithuaniaUEFA Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Home under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 22:00 | Turks & Caicos – MontserratCONCACAF · Nations League | Away win (2) | Hit | |
| 23.09 18:30 | HJK (W) – Brann (W)Europa Cup (W) | Away over 1.5 | Hit | |
| 23.09 08:30 | China U23 – United Arab Emirates U23Asian Games · Men | Away under 1.5 | Hit | |
| 22.09 21:45 | Clachnacuddin – Ross CountyScotland · Challenge Cup | Home under 1.5 | Hit |
Archive back-test 2010–2019
Every archive match is treated as if it were today's: its prediction comes only from the OTHER archive matches with the same opening in that filter combination (leave-one-out). When the share reaches the threshold it counts as a prediction and is checked against the real score. Cell: hit rate and number of predictions. Green = at least 5 points above base, red = below base; framed = best combination for that bet (200+ predictions). 209,514 matches with both half-time and full-time scores.
| Bet type | DNB home + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + DNB away | DNB home + Over 2.5 | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 | DNB home + Over 1.5 | DNB home + Under 3.5 | Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 | DNB home + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 2.5 + BTTS yes | DNB home + DNB away + Over 1.5 + Under 3.5 + Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win (1)base 45% | 62.4%9,682 | 54.8%2,849 | 76.9%8,271 | 71.9%12,305 | 60.9%6,301 | 75.2%9,284 | 73.9%9,989 | 58.3%357 | 54.3%760 | 59.6%114 | 53.2%1,555 |
| Draw (X)base 25% | 29.8%466 | 24.1%220 | 0.0%12 | 28.2%170 | 21.7%314 | 18.2%66 | 22.9%48 | 0.0%5 | 19.8%81 | 0.0%14 | 16.1%124 |
| Away win (2)base 30% | 43.1%1,057 | 31.2%416 | 74.0%3,562 | 56.7%2,573 | 49.8%884 | 66.7%3,116 | 60.7%2,341 | 0.0%11 | 36.0%111 | 25.0%20 | 35.9%223 |
| Over 1.5base 74% | 73.6%50,433 | 72.0%15,991 | 75.9%69,137 | 75.5%81,469 | 72.8%32,751 | 75.9%85,530 | 76.0%76,782 | 78.6%79,217 | 73.8%3,345 | 73.6%588 | 72.2%8,534 |
| Under 1.5base 26% | 35.9%488 | 26.2%263 | 0.0%21 | 34.5%235 | 33.3%517 | 41.8%170 | 26.1%69 | 0.0%7 | 15.5%71 | 33.3%18 | 19.0%147 |
| Over 2.5base 50% | 52.5%6,376 | 48.9%2,425 | 57.8%1,722 | 57.3%6,977 | 53.4%5,197 | 60.2%3,801 | 58.0%5,311 | 72.4%1,628 | 43.6%709 | 38.5%122 | 47.2%1,336 |
| Under 2.5base 50% | 54.8%9,567 | 54.3%4,224 | 53.3%919 | 59.3%8,076 | 55.5%7,678 | 59.8%4,518 | 58.2%4,056 | 70.4%513 | 51.0%1,028 | 59.8%184 | 53.8%2,343 |
| Over 3.5base 28% | 32.2%537 | 28.8%198 | 46.3%123 | 40.6%508 | 36.9%401 | 35.7%210 | 34.8%399 | 39.6%96 | 32.9%76 | 41.7%12 | 16.8%95 |
| Under 3.5base 72% | 75.2%57,257 | 74.5%18,769 | 74.4%75,670 | 75.6%85,860 | 75.0%37,194 | 76.2%83,946 | 76.3%89,161 | 78.6%76,938 | 74.2%3,547 | 73.3%681 | 75.6%9,815 |
| BTTS: yesbase 51% | 49.5%7,188 | 50.5%3,405 | 56.7%1,212 | 54.0%6,383 | 51.6%6,137 | 55.7%3,137 | 55.2%4,249 | 54.8%210 | 53.9%1,074 | 61.8%212 | 52.8%2,115 |
| BTTS: nobase 49% | 51.6%6,850 | 48.9%2,937 | 50.9%948 | 51.1%5,047 | 52.1%5,438 | 55.1%2,834 | 47.1%2,665 | 46.1%165 | 51.5%722 | 54.5%132 | 51.4%1,689 |
| HT over 0.5base 68% | 68.6%34,181 | 67.7%11,900 | 71.5%23,869 | 70.5%47,537 | 68.6%23,838 | 70.7%39,762 | 70.9%38,396 | 75.6%20,925 | 67.1%2,534 | 69.0%467 | 67.7%6,396 |
| HT under 1.5base 68% | 70.1%40,312 | 69.9%14,090 | 69.5%21,083 | 70.9%51,984 | 70.4%27,750 | 70.8%42,516 | 70.7%46,039 | 74.3%20,225 | 69.5%2,839 | 65.4%442 | 69.8%7,416 |
| Home over 1.5base 43% | 59.0%6,664 | 49.9%1,941 | 70.7%2,352 | 64.0%7,053 | 57.2%4,601 | 70.4%4,412 | 67.5%5,741 | 51.2%369 | 49.2%565 | 51.5%103 | 49.0%1,039 |
| Home under 1.5base 57% | 63.4%16,068 | 60.6%6,349 | 74.6%15,758 | 68.3%22,121 | 61.9%12,064 | 70.7%19,874 | 71.4%18,881 | 63.3%665 | 58.2%1,448 | 62.0%284 | 60.1%3,521 |
| Away over 1.5base 32% | 39.9%998 | 36.2%414 | 65.5%1,888 | 52.6%2,019 | 41.1%844 | 62.6%2,369 | 53.1%1,781 | 65.1%43 | 14.3%105 | 41.7%24 | 38.5%231 |
| Away under 1.5base 68% | 74.4%49,129 | 72.8%15,198 | 77.7%55,026 | 76.0%72,378 | 74.0%31,474 | 77.4%67,241 | 76.5%67,478 | 73.6%15,434 | 72.3%3,145 | 72.0%565 | 73.7%8,048 |
| 2-3 goalsbase 46% | 48.0%4,807 | 46.4%2,402 | 43.8%448 | 45.9%2,818 | 48.4%3,890 | 44.6%1,191 | 47.5%1,380 | 32.1%84 | 45.6%656 | 48.8%129 | 49.3%1,371 |
| HT/FT 1/1base 27% | 50.5%1,217 | 38.2%348 | 42.0%143 | 51.5%845 | 41.3%947 | 42.5%179 | 59.0%695 | 59.6%52 | 32.5%80 | 0.0%10 | 44.6%186 |
| HT/FT 2/2base 17% | 25.5%98 | 28.9%38 | 51.8%218 | 44.9%343 | 18.2%55 | 48.0%346 | 41.9%284 | 0.0%2 | 0.0%13 | 0.0%2 | 26.1%23 |
| HT/FT X/Xbase 16% | 0.0%47 | 11.9%42 | – | 41.7%12 | 11.7%60 | 0.0%14 | 0.0%6 | – | 0.0%6 | 0.0%2 | 0.0%24 |
| HT/FT 2/1base 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/2base 2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 1/Xbase 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HT/FT 2/Xbase 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| More goals in 2nd halfbase 45% | 46.6%4,020 | 41.6%1,785 | 45.8%452 | 45.0%2,664 | 46.6%3,229 | 43.1%1,190 | 47.0%1,635 | 28.4%141 | 50.9%581 | 57.9%95 | 45.1%1,081 |
| More goals in 1st halfbase 28% | 27.7%422 | 38.0%303 | 33.3%30 | 32.6%239 | 34.3%417 | 34.8%115 | 33.6%146 | – | 38.8%67 | 62.5%8 | 26.8%97 |
Archive percentages describe what happened in the past; they do not decide a match. harbigol does not offer betting and shows no odds or bookmakers. 18+.
Other analysis pages
Dropping Odds · Matches: how did archive games with the same opening end? · Picks · HT/FT turnarounds